Mexico - March 2026

On 2 February Mexico’s national water commission (Conagua) announced the lowest levels of drought recorded in the country for six years. According to its latest drought monitor report, published on 15 February, just 6.9% of Mexican territory was classified as experiencing drought – up from 6.6% at the end of January but down from 7.4% a month earlier, which had been the lowest figure since January 2020, when coverage stood at 7.2%.

The data mark a dramatic reversal from the severe drought that had gripped the country for the past few years. At the peak of the crisis, on 31 May 2024, Conagua reported that 76% of Mexico was experiencing moderate to severe drought. In the run-up to the June 2024 national elections, water scarcity surged up the political agenda, with warnings of a potential ‘Day Zero’ for Mexico City (CDMX) dominating headlines, as the city and surrounding metropolitan area of 22m people faced the prospect of running dry [SSR-24-05].

Conagua attributes the turnaround to a “very active” rainy season beginning in the second half of 2025 and continuing into this year. Abnormally high levels of precipitation – including several tropical storms and cyclones – fell across central, eastern, and southern Mexico, replenishing reservoirs and easing pressure on the capital’s strained water system. The intense downpours are attributable to the cyclical La Niña meteorological phenomenon, which is known to exacerbate extreme weather conditions – though not itself reducible to climate change.

CDMX’s Cutzamala reservoir system, which had fallen to a critical 27.5% capacity during the 2024 crisis, is now reported by Conagua to be 97% full. Yet the relief has brought new challenges. The capital and its surrounding metropolitan area are struggling to absorb the sudden increased rainfall, with severe flooding disrupting businesses, damaging homes, and accelerating long-term land subsidence. In October rains caused widespread destruction and claimed the lives of dozens in central and eastern Mexico, disproportionately affecting indigenous people and other vulnerable communities, according to an investigation by World Weather Attribution, an academic collaboration studying the influence of climate change on extreme weather events.

Last year’s active rainy season unfolded against rising tensions with the US over Mexico’s obligations under the 1944 Water Treaty, which governs the sharing of the Colorado, Tijuana, and Rio Grande (or Río Bravo in Mexico) rivers. In April 2025, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs if Mexico failed to deliver on its water debts under the treaty. He repeated these threats in December. Sheinbaum replied that Mexico had been complying with the treaty to the extent that water availability allowed, citing the sustained period of drought.

On 3 February Mexico’s environment ministry (Semarnat) announced that both governments had agreed on a “technical plan” to ensure minimum annual water deliveries in line with treaty provisions. Under the agreement, Mexico will commit to delivering 350,000 acre-feet of water per year to the US while agreeing to repay its outstanding volumes accrued over the last five-year cycle. Semarnat acknowledged the agreement as an important milestone towards building “greater predictability and shared responsibility in the face of drought impacts”. Indeed, while the current outlook offers relief, Mexico must be prepared both to ensure domestic supply and to meet treaty obligations ahead of the next inevitable dry spell.

Rains

Torrential rain caused severe flooding and landslides in 110 municipalities in Veracruz, Hidalgo, Puebla, Querétaro, and San Luis Potosí states from 6-9 October. At least 80 people were killed as a result of the rainfall and ensuing flooding. President Sheinbaum said that some 100,000 homes had been affected by the rains.