Andean Group - March 2026

Colombia’s 8 March legislative election produced another divided congress that won’t make life easier for the next president, and primaries held the same day shook up the outlook on the presidential race itself.

While President Gustavo Petro’s left-wing Pacto Histórico grew and will be the largest single force in both chambers, it fell far short of a majority. Media estimates based on the preliminary results showed the left-wing coalition with 39 seats in the 161-member lower chamber (13 more than in the previous congress) and 25 seats (+5) in the 103-member senate.

However, Pacto’s growth was almost matched by a resurgent right-wing opposition Centro Democrático (CD), which bounced back after a poor performance in the 2022 elections. CD, the party of former presidents Álvaro Uribe (2002-2010) and Iván Duque (2018-2022), will be the second largest party in the lower chamber with 30 seats (+14) and the second largest in the senate with 17 seats (+4). Any coalition is likely to hinge on the moderates in the centre-left Partido Liberal (PL), which took 29 seats in the lower chamber (-4) and 13 in the senate (-1), and the centre-right Partido Conservador (PC), which took 20 seats in the lower chamber (-7) and 10 in the senate (-5).

For investors, the legislative results are a double-edged sword. The fragmented congress will probably act as a counterweight against radical policy shifts, including the constitutional and health reforms championed by the Petro administration. However, it also signals potential gridlock at a time when Colombia faces a series of economic and fiscal challenges. Passing major structural reforms in the new congress will be nearly impossible without broad, multi-party coalitions. The next president will have to reckon with a budget deficit that surged to 7.1% of GDP in 2025, according to finance ministry projections, and an overall public debt that exceeds 70% of GDP, according to the World Bank. The worsening fiscal situation has resulted in credit downgrades. The latest by Fitch in December lowered Colombia deeper into junk territory, from BB+ to BB, indicating “elevated vulnerability to default”.

Summing up the results, Sergio Guzmán of the consultancy Colombia Risk Analysis said that “congress remains divided”. He argued that neither the left nor the right can govern without the consent of the traditional PL and PC, which hold the keys to the middle ground.

Primaries

The three primaries that were held on the same day were expected to be a footnote, given that the two candidates regarded as the frontrunners – left-wing continuity candidate Iván Cepeda and the far-right outsider Abelardo de la Espriella – were not participating. However, CD Senator Paloma Valencia won the candidacy of the right-wing Gran Consulta por Colombia coalition with 3.2m votes, giving her 46% of the vote. That may position her and not De la Espriella as the main challenger to Cepeda. While previous polls had shown that Cepeda would handily defeat either Valencia or De la Espriella, financial markets staged a relief rally on the election result, betting that a more moderate centre-right candidate stands a better chance of toppling the ruling left-wing coalition.

Investors prefer Valencia’s market-friendly stance, particularly on easing restrictions on new hydrocarbon exploration, which they see as vital for Colombia to attract foreign capital, balance its books, and secure its energy supply. In contrast, Cepeda has promised to continue Petro’s transition away from fossil fuels.