Andean Group - March 2026

Ecuador suffered its second most violent January in history this year, hot on the heels of what was, by some distance, the country’s most violent year on record in 2025. Despite President Daniel Noboa making security his central focus, his radical measures have so far failed to stem a rising tide of violence. The government announced a new security plan in January that will see it double down on its tactics.

There were 9,235 murders in Ecuador in 2025, according to interior ministry figures, representing a stark increase of 31% on the 7,063 homicides recorded in 2024. Last year’s toll significantly outstripped the previous record, set in 2023, of 8,248 homicides. In fact, with the exception of 2024, murders have been trending upwards since 2016, with the number of homicides in 2025 up by 862% compared to that year, when 959 killings were registered. This rise in violence intensified dramatically in 2021, when there was an 82% year-on-year increase in murders. This was the year that the security situation began to seriously break down, with massacres in the prison system heralding the escalation of the country’s gang wars.

Despite President Noboa’s overhaul of public security since early 2024, which has included the permanent mobilisation of the armed forces against gangs and the declaration of an ‘internal armed conflict’, the situation has continued to worsen during his presidency. A 6.6% year-on-year drop in homicides this January will only offer limited relief, given that, with 747 murders, it was the second most violent start to the year in Ecuadorean history after January 2025, when 800 homicides were committed.

With Noboa’s hopes for a US troop presence in Ecuador now in tatters following a referendum defeat in November [SSR-26-01], the government is seeking new solutions as it attempts to turn the situation around. On 26 January Noboa announced a new security plan that will see US$180m invested in 11 projects, including the purchase of seven dual rotor helicopters; a multipurpose logistics boat; and a 3D radar system, scanners, and drones for use in the border regions. There will also be a US$50m investment in the intelligence service, which the defence minister, Gian Carlo Loffredo, said would “modernise the tactical systems of intelligence” to “prevent attacks, identify risks before they materialise, and protect the country’s strategic infrastructure”.

Regarding the prison network, which has in the past five years been a key centre of gang violence and recruitment, as well as an operational headquarters for criminal leaders, Interior Minister John Reimberg claimed that it is nonetheless on track to become “one of the best in the region”. This, he said, would be a result of the Cárcel del Encuentro, a new maximum-security prison which began receiving inmates in November despite not being finished [SSR-25-12], and a new mega-prison which he said will be completed in the next 15-18 months and would hold 15,000 inmates.

Another key element of the plan is the strengthening of the government’s financial analysis unit (Uafe) to try and cut off gangs’ revenue streams. Uafe’s director, Julio José Neira, said that as well as targeting organised crime, these efforts also extended into the political sphere, and that “thanks to high-level international cooperation, we’ve managed to identify illicit finance for politicians”. This was a reference to a probe into the main opposition party, the left-wing Revolución Ciudadana (RC) for allegedly receiving illegal campaign donations from Venezuela in the 2023 presidential election.

Leading opposition politicians investigated

On 28 January prosecutors raided the home of Luisa González, the two-time RC presidential candidate who reached the second round against Noboa in 2023 and 2025. Prosecutors also raided the home of RC’s 2021 candidate, Andrés Arauz, who was González’s running mate in 2023. The raids are part of a probe into allegations that RC received illegal donations from Venezuela for its 2023 campaign. RC, which was founded by former president Rafael Correa (2007-2017), claims to be the target of political persecution. The raids were followed by the arrest of another leading opposition figure, Guayaquil mayor Aquiles Álvarez, on tax fraud and money laundering charges on 10 February. Álvarez represents the left-wing Movimiento Reto and is allied with RC.