Security & Strategic Review - April 2026

In theory Haiti should have an elected government by the end of the year, but the odds are stacked against this long-sought transition happening smoothly and on schedule, if at all. In theory, the first round of the electoral process should take place on 30 August, with a second round, if needed, on 6 December. However, the new United Nations-backed 5,550-strong Gang Suppression Force (GSF) has only been operating for six months and will not be up to full strength until September, according to William O’Neill, the UN’s independent expert on human rights in Haiti. And, in any case, force alone is unlikely to be sufficient to create the conditions for a successful election. As the Brussels-headquartered NGO International Crisis Group (ICG) argued in an important paper published in December 2025, dialogue with the gangs is also necessary, albeit better conducted from a position of strength than weakness.