Mexico - April 2026

On 25 March shareholders in Mexican budget airline Volaris approved a proposed merger with competitor Viva Aerobus, a deal which has raised concerns about monopoly power and its potential effects in raising ticket prices.

The long-mooted fusion of the two low-cost carriers will now be submitted for regulatory approval in Mexico, the US, and Colombia, a process that company leadership has suggested could take around a year. Approval would result in the creation of a new airline group named Grupo Más Vuelos, which would operate around 70% of Mexico’s domestic flights [EB-26-01]. According to the airlines, the new larger company would be able to negotiate better deals on aircraft and fuel, as well as being able to access lower borrowing costs thanks to better credit metrics. President Claudia Sheinbaum has spoken out in support of the deal, lauding its potential to increase the capacity of Mexican airlines, but critics have argued that the group’s dominance on domestic routes would lead to increased ticket prices, to the detriment of Mexican consumers. 

This will be the first major market concentration case decided by the newly formed antitrust and competition watchdog Comisión Nacional Antimonopolio (CNA). The fact that the CNA sits within the executive branch as part of the economy ministry (SE) has led to concerns in some quarters that the approval process may be subject to political pressure, but various analysts have moved to tamp down worries over the effects that the new company would have on the aviation sector.

“There’s always a question of if there’s fewer competitors, there’s more opportunity for fares to go higher,” Savanthi Syth, an analyst at investment bank Raymond James, told Bloomberg. “That’s definitely a risk, but it’s not necessarily a foregone conclusion,” she added, predicting that the new group could try and emulate the model pioneered by Irish airline Ryanair, which prioritises secondary airports. And Janneth Quiroz, research director at Monex Grupo Financiero, argued that the deal appears to be driven by a desire to lower costs rather than increase income. “These two airlines have distinguished themselves by offering low prices and focusing on volume,” Quiroz said. “The strategy is on the cost side, not on improving their income by increasing prices.”

According to analysts consulted by Bloomberg, the likely outcome is that the CNA approves the deal subject to certain conditions. Giovanni Tapia, a former antitrust commissioner at the now-defunct anti-trust and competition watchdog Comisión Federal de Competencia Económica (Cofece), which was replaced by the CNA, said that this could include requirements to give up take-off and landing slots at airports where the airlines are dominant, if not doing so could affect competitors. 

Nonetheless, the deal also requires regulatory approvals or non-objections in Colombia and the US. The latter may be complicated by ongoing tensions related to cross-border routes, after the US Department of Transportation rejected 13 flight routes by Mexican airlines into the US in October 2025, and it revoked antitrust immunity for an agreement between Mexico’s flag carrier, Aeroméxico, and US airline Delta Air Lines, in September. The deal is also advancing at a time of intense scrutiny of trade relations between the two neighbours as part of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) renegotiation, increasing the risk that it gets caught up in wider bilateral discussions.