Caribbean & Central America - April 2026

On 10 February Guatemala’s interior ministry (Mingob) announced that it had completed its first ever census of its prison system. The move is in line with efforts by the left-of-centre government led by President Bernardo Arévalo to address the prison crisis. This was most recently exposed in January with a wave of gang violence and prison riots which left at least 11 police (PNC) officials dead, compelling the Arévalo government to declare a 30-day state of siege [SSR-26-02].

The plan to carry out the census was first announced in October 2025, among other measures, following the escape of 20 members of the Barrio 18 (M-18) gang, one of the country’s two main gangs, from high security prison Fraijanes II on the outskirts of Guatemala City. The October jailbreak, which followed a series of prison riots in July and August involving inmates from M-18 and the country’s other main gang, Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13), forced the departure of interior minister Francisco Jiménez (2024-2025), two deputy security ministers, and the director of the prison service, Ludin Godínez, among others [SSR-25-12].

According to Mingob, the census unveiled on 10 February produced a “solid and reliable database on the identity of 23,837 incarcerated individuals” – a figure which included “2,545 active terrorists” from M-18 and MS-13. The country’s deputy security minister, Estuardo Roberto Solórzano, was cited by state news agency Agencia Guatemalteca de Noticias (AGN) in an 11 March report as describing it as “a key step forward in strengthening prison intelligence and security measures within prison facilities.”

The census is part of wider plans to modernise Guatemala’s prisons. During a summons before the 160-member unicameral legislature on 20 February, Interior Minister Marco Antonio Villeda explained that the country’s 24 prisons are designed to hold just 6,000 people, but currently hold around 23,000 inmates. Meanwhile on 2 March President Arévalo revealed plans to begin constructing a new maximum-security prison in Morales municipality, Izabal department. He also highlighted plans to build a new prison in Masagua municipality, Escuintla department, with the media reporting that the new prisons would have the capacity to house 2,000 and 3,000 prisoners respectively, as part of a push to tackle prison overcrowding.

Equipment

Among the equipment that Guatemala plans to purchase from the US, following the apparent lifting of the ban on acquiring US military equipment, Defence Minister Henry Sáenz highlighted Colt 5.56 M4 rifles, adding that the country is also considering the purchase of aircraft, ammunition, and specialised equipment for night operations. He put the figure available for these purchases at some Q400m (US$52m).

Strengthening ties with the US

On 9 March Guatemala’s Defence Minister Henry Sáenz announced Guatemala would now be able to buy weaponry and military equipment from the US. He said that this represents an effective lifting of the prohibition on acquiring US military equipment imposed on Guatemala in 1978 by the government of former US president Jimmy Carter (1977-1981).

The ban had been imposed due to human rights violations committed during the civil war (1960-1996) by Guatemala’s armed forces, which were subsequently found by a United Nations commission for historical clarification (CEH) to have committed 93% of all human rights violations during this period along with other state agents.

Describing the US decision as “historic”. Sáenz was cited by AGN in a 9 March report as saying that it was the fruit of “trust and strategic cooperation” between the two countries, which will permit purchases to be made under the “government to government” modality. He claimed that it reflected efforts by the Arévalo administration to tackle drug trafficking and other transnational threats.

In a 10 March report, however, Salvadorean investigative outlet El Faro questioned the extent to which these restrictions had been in place, pointing out that from 2018-2021 the US donated equipment to Guatemala despite “reports of misuse including intimidation of US embassy staff”.

Among other examples, it states that in 2022 the US administration under former president Joe Biden (2021-2025) used a Defence Department programme to “skirt State Department military aid restrictions on Guatemala”, allowing the donation of 95 vehicles to the Guatemalan army to support border security efforts, valued at US$4.4m according to an October 2022 statement by US-based lobby group Washington Office on Latin America (Wola).

Sáenz’s announcement comes amid other signs of strong bilateral ties, largely due to Arévalo’s concerted efforts to appease Trump in areas such as migration [SSR-25-03], while its decision announced on 10 February to end participation in the Cuban doctors programme, which provides essential revenue to Havana [WR-26-08], was also no doubt looked upon favourably by Washington, which is applying unprecedented pressure on Cuba.

Along with El Salvador, Ecuador and Argentina, Guatemala, which is also modernising its port infrastructure with US cooperation [EB-25-06], was included in a list of countries for which Trump said reciprocal tariffs would be removed [WR-26-06], although this is since subject to uncertainty following a 20 February US supreme court ruling which invalidated part of his comprehensive tariff framework.