Andean Group - April 2026

Ecuador’s political opposition is facing escalating legal pressure on several fronts, with criminal investigations looking into alleged money laundering, tax fraud, and illicit campaign financing which may have amounted to foreign interference in Ecuadorean politics. The opposition, however, claims to be the target of persecution that it says reflects wider democratic backsliding under President Daniel Noboa. The 6 March suspension of the main opposition party, Revolución Ciudadana (RC), the party of former president Rafael Correa (2007-2017), marked a major escalation. It came after the arrest of the mayor of the country’s largest city, Guayaquil, and raids on the homes of RC’s 2021, 2023 and 2025 presidential candidates.

The main legal threat against RC comes from the ‘Caja Chica’ probe by the attorney general’s office, which is looking into allegations that the party received illegal financing from the Venezuelan government during the 2023 general election. According to local media, on 30 January Santiago Díaz, the director of RC’s 2023 campaign and a former legislator, told prosecutors that he had been involved in the transfer of funds from Caracas. Díaz’s credibility was called into question by RC, which noted that he was expelled from the party after being arrested in July 2025 for allegedly raping a 12-year-old girl. RC claims that Díaz is making false claims as he seeks a plea bargain.

The Caja Chica investigation has been gathering steam since 28 January, when prosecutors raided the homes of RC’s 2023 and 2025 presidential candidate, Luisa González, and its 2021 candidate Andrés Arauz, who was González’s running mate in 2023. González was the leader of RC from 2023 until January this year, when she was replaced by Gabriela Rivadeneira.

Then, on 6 March, RC was handed a nine-month suspension by Joaquín Viteri, a judge on the electoral disputes tribunal (TCE), following a request from interim Attorney General Leonardo Alarcón. Whilst Viteri noted in his ruling that the suspension could be overturned pending new evidence, and RC has announced a legal challenge, it could have profound implications for the local elections that are due in November this year, having been unexpectedly moved forwards in March. As things stand, RC will be barred from participating – an exclusion which would have huge political consequences, given that in the 2023 contest, RC won the largest number of governorships and mayoralties.

• Regional elections brought forward

  The national electoral council (CNE) announced on 27 March that the regional elections, which were due to be held on 14 February 2027, will instead take place on 29 November this year, to avoid potential disruption by the El Niño climate phenomenon. The change further increases the probability that the main opposition party Revolución Ciudadana (RC), which is appealing a nine-month suspension, will not be able to participate. RC's leader, former president Rafael Correa (2007-2017), noted that elections were not moved during previous crises such as the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic and claimed that “the goal is to block the participation of parties opposed to Noboa’s government”.

“Noboa wants to win the elections without the opposition,” Correa declared on 8 March. Claiming that “we’re facing a true dictatorship”, he accused Alarcón and Viteri of being “in the pocket” of the president. Correa was hardly a model democrat himself, having demonised the press, sued journalists, and even allegedly ordered the attempted kidnapping of opposition deputy Fernando Balda in Colombia in 2012. Nevertheless, RC, over which Correa retains massive influence from his self-imposed exile in Belgium, is now facing an existential threat from “an autocrat who is making decisions and manipulating the functions of the state for his own convenience,” according to Rivadeneira.

Rivadeneira’s comments came during a press conference on 9 March in which she also flagged the 10 February arrest of Guayaquil mayor Aquiles Álvarez, of the left-wing Movimiento Reto which is allied with RC. Álvarez was arrested on tax fraud and money laundering charges, with the attorney general’s office saying that he is suspected of involvement in organised crime and that US$160,000 in cash had been seized during raids at 11 properties in Guayas province during the raids, in which two of his brothers were also arrested. Álvarez’s arrest, which sparked protests the same day by hundreds of his supporters in Guayaquil, was described by his lawyer, Ramiro García, as “the use of criminal justice as a tool to persecute a political rival”.

As the mayor of Ecuador’s largest city and its main business hub, Álvarez’s influence extends along the Pacific coast, which bucked a strong swing to the right in the 2025 general elections in which Noboa won a second term. With the highest approval rating of all of the country’s mayors, according to a June 2025 poll by CB Consultora, he has been flagged by the media as a potential presidential candidate in 2029.

Next year’s local elections, in which RC’s participation is now in doubt, will be key for the left-wing opposition as it seeks to build momentum towards a presidential victory after three successive defeats in 2021, 2023, and 2025. The elections will also be seen by Noboa as a means to grow his centre-right Acción Democrática Nacional (ADN), which surged from relative obscurity in the 2023 elections and as such has no real presence at the municipal and provincial levels.

Judicial independence

The legal threat faced by RC comes as the independence of the justice system is facing renewed scrutiny. The political opposition expressed concern at the 9 February appointment of Damián Larco as interim head of the judicial oversight body (CJ). Larco took the helm of the CJ following a process which RC said was unorthodox and lacking in transparency after his predecessor, Mario Godoy, stood down to unsuccessfully fight impeachment proceedings in which he was accused of pressuring judges to acquit Jezdimir Srdan, a Serbian drug trafficker who was sentenced to 10 years in prison in February.

Larco is reportedly a personal ally of Noboa, with local media highlighting that he wiped a US$94m tax debt owed by the Noboa family’s business, Exportadora Bananera Noboa, while he was head of the tax authority (SRI) from 2023-2025. Larco is also the husband of José Neira, Noboa’s public integrity secretary.

‘Pipo’ accuses Noboa of Villavicencio murder

During an extradition hearing in Spain on 25 February, Wilmer ‘Pipo’ Chavarría, who is believed to be the leader of Los Lobos, Ecuador’s most powerful drug cartel, denied any involvement in the August 2023 assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, claiming instead that the killing had been ordered by the current president, Daniel Noboa. According to Pipo’s narrative Noboa had ordered the killing of Villavicencio, an anti-corruption campaigner, fearing that his rival in the presidential race might win. Villavicencio’s family rejected Pipo’s claims and expressed confidence in the ongoing official investigation into Villavicencio’s death, which has implicated Los Lobos.