Caribbean & Central America - May 2026

In 2010, at the start of Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar’s first term in power (2010-2015), Trinidad & Tobago had a total GDP of US$22.52bn and GDP per capita GDP of US$16,960, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and on current prices. By contrast, neighbouring Guyana had a total GDP of US$2.89bn and per capita GDP of US$8,850. How things have changed. Newly oil-rich Guyana had a GDP of US$27.1bn in 2025, around nine times the 2010 figure, and GDP per capita of US$81,500. Trinidad, meanwhile, has virtually stagnated, with total GDP growing to just US$25.93bn in 15 years, and GDP per capita to US$18,070. It is Trinidad that is now the junior partner, not just economically but also politically as Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali displays considerably more deftness than the Trinidadian prime minister in navigating between a US administration that demands nothing less than full-hearted support for its policies and Caribbean Community (Caricom) members that are fearful of what President Donald Trump’s ‘might is right’ foreign policy means for the world’s weaker nations.

Despite considerable cultural similarities, relations between Trinidad and Guyana have not always been smooth. The main similarity between the two nations is that both have large East Indian populations as a result of importing indentured labourers from India after the end of slavery in 1833. In both countries, people of East Indian descent now make up around 40% of the population, and coincidentally, at present parties largely supported by East Indian voters are in power in both countries – the People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) in Guyana and the United National Congress (UNC) in Trinidad.

At the government level, relations between the two countries have been historically good, even during the authoritarian rule of Guyana’s former leader Forbes Burnham (1964-1985). Trinidad supplied oil on favourable terms and refrained from criticism of the Burnham government, and, despite that, good relations continued after the PPP/C came to power in 1992.

Nevertheless, at the society level difficulties arose because of Trinidad’s considerably greater wealth. In an April 2022 article on Trinidad-Guyana relations for Stabroek News, Guyanese politician Ralph Ramkarran wrote: “There is a strong undercurrent in Guyana of resentment against what is believed to be Trinidad’s historically unflattering view of Guyana due, it has always been believed, to Trinidad’s sense of its own superiority by virtue of its oil wealth as against Guyana’s relative poverty”.

The tensions were exacerbated during the 1970s and 1980s when large numbers of Guyanese sought work elsewhere in the Caribbean, particularly in Trinidad. A lot of these migrants were illegal, with many engaged in what became known as ‘suitcase trading’. As a result, according to Ramkarran, “no single Guyanese passing through Trinidad during this era, and even much later, has not experienced surly, enhanced, scrutiny and less than accommodating reception at Trinidad’s immigration and customs desk”. The fact that in the early 1990s Trinidad forgave Guyana a debt of US$400m for petroleum products it couldn’t pay for did little to change the views of Guyanese towards Trinidad.

On coming to power for the first time in 2010, Prime Minister Persad-Bissessar did little to help soften Trinidad’s image by declaring that the country was no longer prepared to be Caricom’s “ATM card”, even though the reason for the sentiment, declining resources, was understandable.

Sparked by a Caricom debate over how to pay for a regional security programme, Persad-Bissessar declared: “We just don’t have the resources that would have existed in the past. A lot of money is being shelled out and no accountability or transparency. Each time there is a shortfall, we cannot continue like T&T is an ATM card as one of my officers has said to me… It just can’t happen anymore… There’s no godfather partner…we’re all in this equally.”

Trinidad’s new prime minister then further upset the region with comments about how any help for countries that had suffered from the effects of Hurricane Tomas must also benefit the people of Trinidad. She said: “If we are giving assistance with housing for example… then we may be able to use Trinidad & Tobago builders and companies, so that whatever money or assistance is given redounds back in some measure to the people of Trinidad & Tobago.”

The outcry against this comment did produce an apology, and a reiteration of Trinidad’s commitment “to regional integration and to our Caricom brothers and sisters”, but Persad-Bissessar’s problems with Caricom have resurfaced since her return to power in 2025 with her strong support for the regional policies of President Trump (who would perhaps have seen nothing wrong with her comment about looking for national benefits in return for giving aid to countries affected by Hurricane Tomas).

Persad-Bissessar has strongly aligned with the Trump administration’s policy of destroying alleged drug trafficking boats in the southern Caribbean and on the seizure of Venezuela’s former president Nicolás Maduro (2013-2026) and his wife in January. She has characterised Caricom as an “unreliable partner”, and she has openly challenged the idea – put forward most strongly by Barbados’s Prime Minister Mia Mottley but also supported by Guyana’s President Ali – that the Caribbean is a “zone of peace”.

However, the differences with President Ali are not so great as those with Mottley and other Caribbean leaders largely because Guyana has broadly welcomed the removal of Maduro because of his vocal support for Venezuela’s territorial claim to the Essequibo region – spanning two-thirds of Guyana’s landmass and a portion of its maritime Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), including where oil has been found.

Nevertheless, Ali has not been so forthright in his support for the US as Persad-Bissessar, no doubt because he is more concerned about the Caricom collective view than the Trinidadian prime minister. Immediately after the seizure of Maduro, Ali used language that suggested reservations about Washington’s resort to force and the lack of a clear plan for a democratic transition in Venezuela.

He said: “Stability, respect for law, and democratic transition are critical to the future of Venezuela and the broader Americas. In this regard, Guyana supports efforts that uphold democratic norms and ensure that the region remains a zone of peace. The government of Guyana welcomes the leadership of the president of the United States in reaffirming shared commitments to freedom, democracy, and regional security.”

Ali has displayed a similar level of caution towards the US sinking of alleged drug-trafficking boats. Speaking in December 2025, he said: “My administration has absolutely no sympathy for drug traffickers. Tens of thousands, millions of lives are destroyed, and also economies are destroyed by smuggling… We also see our region as one in which democracy must be able to thrive, in which the rule of law must win every single day, in which the freedom of people, wherever they live and exist, must be honoured. And that is an important element of any modern society, and we support the region being a zone of peace.”

Ali was also careful to explain why Guyana was perhaps more understanding of US actions in the southern Caribbean than other Caricom member states. He said: “You know that we have a peculiar situation in Guyana. We just had Venezuelans being charged for terrorist activity in Guyana that claimed the life of a young person. We have a border situation to manage, we have an active threat from Venezuela on the sovereignty of this country. And my responsibility is to keep Guyanese safe, to keep Guyana safe, and to work with our allies and partners in doing that. And I intend to continue to work strongly with our allies in doing exactly that.”

So Guyana is not just outstripping Trinidad economically, it is also pushing ahead diplomatically, showing more deftness than its formerly more powerful neighbour. But it is Guyana’s increasing economic weight that underpins everything, and the contrast between the two countries’ fortunes was starkly highlighted in their most recent IMF Article IV Consultations.

The 10 February 2026 Staff Concluding Statement for Trinidad and Tobago began with the observation that “Trinidad and Tobago’s economy is gradually recovering to pre-pandemic levels amid persistent headwinds”. By contrast, the Staff Concluding Statement for Guyana, issued 11 months earlier on 7 March 2025 began by noting that “Guyana’s economic transformation is advancing at a strong pace and broadening in scale.”

Although the IMF was able to discern some positives for Trinidad, there is unlikely to be any change in the general trajectory of a rapidly advancing Guyanese economy and a struggling Trinidadian one. The IMF is projecting GDP growth of 0.8% for Trinidad in 2026 against an average advance for Guyana of 14% a year from 2025-2030 “driven by robust oil production amid a growing share of the non-oil sector”. Guyana’s non-oil sector is projected to advance by around 6.75% a year.

Trinidad’s medium-term prospects are slightly better, “as stronger growth in the non-energy sector partly offsets an anticipated decline in energy production”. The IMF is projecting growth of 2.9% in 2027 and 3.5% in 2028. The IMF emphasises the importance of economic diversification, and it welcomes the government’s focus “on increasing investment in major projects, developing agriculture and agro-processing, expanding tourism and the creative economy, and strengthening Small and Medium-sized Enterprises through improved access to finance and a more supportive business environment”. The non-energy sector’s share of GDP is expected to rise from 74.1% in 2021 to 81.0% in 2026.

One obvious way forward for Trinidad is to find ways of piggybacking on Guyana’s newfound wealth, and Persad-Bissessar welcomed Guyana’s President Ali as the guest of honour at the annual business-outlook gathering of the Trinidad & Tobago Chamber of Industry and Commerce on 10 April in Port of Spain. She is also planning an official visit to Guyana later in the year.

During his April visit to Trinidad, Ali told the business gathering: “The partnership between Trinidad & Tobago and Guyana is not new, but the opportunity before us is unprecedented. If we are serious about advancing this relationship, we must remove the barriers that constrain trade, align our systems, and build a joint economic platform that allows our businesses to compete and grow at scale.” He added that “the government must not hide behind bureaucracy, and the private sector must not hide behind inefficiency”. He called for greater collaboration in sectors such as energy, agro-processing, infrastructure, and technology.