Mexico - May 2026

Once a fierce opponent of hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, President Claudia Sheinbaum is controversially proposing to develop the practice in order to access Mexico’s unconventional natural gas deposits so that the country can reduce its reliance on US imports, as Mexico struggles with disruptions to global energy markets caused by the war in Iran [EB-26-04].

With domestic demand for natural gas rising in recent years as national oil production has fallen by more than half since the early 2000s, the plans first unveiled on 8 April expose the pressure Mexico faces to boost its energy sovereignty as well as Sheinbaum’s determination to tackle the country’s vulnerabilities. But her newfound pragmatism could prove to be politically costly: not only has the former climate scientist previously been critical of fracking’s environmental impact, but the move also represents a wrenching U-turn for the ruling Movimiento Regeneración Nacional (Morena) party, given that Sheinbaum’s predecessor and mentor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2018-2024), tried to introduce a constitutional ban against the practice in 2024.

Nevertheless, Sheinbaum has argued that new technologies allow for a less environmentally damaging way of accessing unconventional reserves than traditional fracking – a much-criticised practice that involves the hydraulic fracturing of underground rock formations with a mixture of water, chemicals, and sand to release the gas. Sheinbaum insists that she remains opposed to traditional fracking, and that new technologies use biodegradable components and salt water, as well as allowing the water to be recycled.

In order to assuage concerns, an expert committee consisting of scientists and specialists in water management, sustainable exploitation, geology, and the environment has been set up to advise the government and evaluate whether lower-impact fracking is feasible. The committee, which was established on 15 April, is due to issue recommendations within two months, with Sheinbaum insisting that any decisions would be made based on scientific knowledge, sustainability, feasibility, and cost. “To strengthen energy sovereignty, we are bringing in this top-tier academic group from our country to provide us with guidance,” said Sheinbaum, adding that it was “unprecedented” to seek the advice of academics for such important decisions. She also assured that any projects would require approval from local communities, possibly involving a local or even a national vote, and that her government would not do anything to “harm” the population.

Mexico currently consumes about 9bn cubic feet of natural gas daily, of which 2.3bn cubic feet is produced by state energy company Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex). But 6.8bn cubic feet – or around three quarters – is imported from US states on the Mexican border, with about 80% coming from Texas and the remainder from California, making Mexico the world’s largest buyer of US natural gas. Tapping unconventional domestic reserves could enable access to 141.5bn cubic feet of natural gas, compared to conventional deposits of just 83.1bn cubic feet. The plans aim to almost double Pemex’s production to 4.5bn cubic feet of natural gas per day by the end of Sheinbaum’s term in 2030, reaching 8.6bn by 2036, using both conventional and unconventional reserves.

As well as strengthening energy sovereignty through natural gas production, the government is also planning to increase the production of renewable energy, setting a goal for it to account for 38% of total electricity generation by 2030, up from 24% currently.

Private firms will likely partner with Pemex through mixed contracts, since Pemex does not have the financial muscle to undertake fracking at scale by itself – although it would have a majority share in all projects, according to officials. “There are technologies that [private companies] have that probably have to be used, but we aren’t going to turn over our national resources to foreigners,” said Sheinbaum.

There are good reasons for the plans to be welcomed by Mexico’s energy industry, which has long struggled with declining output. While geographical proximity to the US shale industry could smooth infrastructure development, broader success would depend on how open authorities are to private energy investment and reducing Pemex’s role in the sector, reversing the efforts of the previous administration.

Analysts have warned that investor appetite could be dampened by regulatory uncertainty and political risk, especially given Morena’s traditional opposition to fracking, as well as the strong rejection from environmental groups who remain deeply suspicious about excessive water usage, especially in northern shale basins, as well as the potential to pollute water supplies, seismic risks, and damage to natural habitats.

Local anti-fracking group Alianza Mexicana Contra el Fracking has previously said that if Sheinbaum adopted fracking it would represent “a betrayal of the people who elected her”. Following Sheinbaum’s announcement, it issued a statement arguing that sustainable fracking does not exist, despite attempts to suggest otherwise, noting that Sheinbaum herself also used to argue this before becoming president. It also condemned the government’s environmental committee as “a sham designed to legitimise a decision that has already been made”. Furthermore, given that the gas extracted by fracking is a fossil fuel, it argued that the initiative will distract from the drive to boost renewable energy generation.

Although Morena has previously opposed fracking, plans to tap unconventional hydrocarbon deposits were included in Pemex’s 10-year strategy released last August. In reality, Pemex has been fracking for years in some onshore fields near the coast of the Gulf of Mexico, although it does not disclose production levels – and the majority of Pemex’s production is from old offshore fields in shallow waters. In addition, there was an unsuccessful drive in Mexico to exploit unconventional oil and gas deposits as part of sweeping energy reforms in 2014, but the bidding processes for contracts ultimately failed to prosper.

“For many years, I said no to fracking, but when I look at the new technologies and the country’s situation in terms of energy dependence, the worst we can do is just say no. Instead, let’s see, let’s find out if there really are new technologies with less environmental impact,” said Sheinbaum when announcing the decision. “If we don’t do anything we will be importing more and more…What’s the problem with importing? Just look at how lots of countries in the world are suffering because of what happened in Iran,” she added, noting that Mexico must avoid falling into situations such as when Europe was hit by Russian gas shortages caused by the war in Ukraine – not to mention the current conflict in the Middle East.

While assuring that contracts for US gas imports are guaranteed, Sheinbaum underlined that “increasing energy sovereignty is a responsible decision”. Officials argue that relying on imports exposes Mexico to international price fluctuations, vulnerability to weather events, international conflicts, limitations on regional development, uncertainty regarding supply security, and dependence on foreign decisions.