Caribbean & Central America - August 2008 (ISSN 1741-4458)
CUBA: Raúl says no more change for Cuba
In line with hints in the latter half of last month, President Raúl Castro recently put paid to hopes of further change rekindled by the string of economic reforms he has enacted since becoming president [RC-08-04]. In his most important speech of the year, at the regime's annual Day of National Rebellion ceremony, or the anniversary of the storming of the Moncada barracks in Santiago de Cuba, he told Cubans that there would be no further reforms in the short to medium-term. Meanwhile, ongoing crackdowns on dissidents suggest that government hardliners remain uneasy with some of the recent changes (see box).
On 26 July, at the 55th anniversary of the storming of Moncada, in an announcement carefully designed for maximum impact, Raúl said that there would be no more economic reforms for the time being, adding that Cubans must not get used to “receiving only good news". This means that there is no end in sight for the dual currency system, or travel restrictions for Cubans. Raúl further elaborated on a statement made in mid July that it would be “unethical to create false expectations" about the removal of salary caps [RC-08-07], saying that Cubans had to be prepared to make sacrifices in the face of the global economic slowdown and high food and oil prices.
The event was also clearly designed to quell speculation among Cubans and in the foreign press of divisions between Raúl and his brother, former president Fidel, who are reportedly supported by different factions within the Cuban Communist Party (CCP) [RC-08-07]. Raúl was pointedly introduced by an official speaker as “second secretary of the Communist party" - Fidel is still the party's first secretary - and during his 50 minute address, delivered in front of a huge billboard with a photograph of Fidel, Raúl referred repeatedly to his brother.
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CCDHRN
report According to the CCDHRN report, the number of prisoners of conscience in Cuban jails decreased from an estimated 234 in January 2008 to 219 on 20 July. This decline was outweighed, however, by a surge in the number of “arbitrary detentions" to 640 so far in 2008 (compared to 325 in the whole of 2007). “Arbitrary detentions" are defined as short-term detentions, where dissidents are arrested for a few hours or a day before being released home or, increasingly, being returned to their province of origin in other parts of Cuba. A law passed in 1997 to limit the flow of rural-urban migration within Cuba and to avoid shanty towns being built by migrants on the outskirts of Havana, means that officially it is necessary to apply for permission to move to the capital. Arresting dissidents to
prevent them from making public displays of opposition and then
inconveniencing them by taking them back to their province of origin has
become a common feature of what the CCDHRN calls the “low intensity"
political repression of the past few months in Cuba. The report concludes
that this sort of repression is likely to increase in the short to
medium-term future, with “arbitrary detentions" being favoured over more
high-profile crackdowns involving long prison sentences for dissidents (as
happened in 2003). |
On 15 August ten dissidents were arrested after attempting to lead a demonstration in the Plaza de la Revolución and returned to their provinces of origin. For the first time, the protest was broadcast by radio stations in Miami, thanks to one of the dissidents who left his mobile phone line open so that the protest and police actions could be heard.