Caribbean & Central America - August 2008 (ISSN 1741-4458)

On 11 August President Raúl Castro released a statement expressing his support for Russia in its conflict with Georgia over the separatist region of South Ossetia. This is the latest in a series of events indicating a rapprochement between the old Cold War allies, lately confirmed by a visit from a high-level Russian delegation to Cuba in late July.

The visit came after speculation that Russia was considering deploying bombers to Cuba in response to the US's establishing of an anti-missile 'defence shield' in Eastern Europe, ostensibly to counter Iran's growing military capability. The head of Russia's security council, Nikolai Patrushev, insisted that the meeting between the Russian delegation and Raúl Castro focused on economic ties between the two countries. “We agreed on_ a direction for cooperation in energy, mining, agriculture, transport, healthcare and communications," he said.

The presence of the head of the security council, however, suggests that either the talks involved possible military purchases by Cuba, or Russia wanted to give the impression that military matters were discussed. Indeed, on 4 August Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin raised the spectre of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis by mooting “re-establishing positions in Cuba". This came after Russian daily Izvestia cited a top military source as saying that Russia was considering basing nuclear bombers in Cuba in response to the US's plans to set up an anti-missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic. Raúl Castro refused to confirm or deny the allegations; his brother Fidel praised his silence.

It is distinctly possible, however, that the “leaks" to Izvestia (denied by the Russian defence ministry) - as well as Putin's evocation of the 1962 missile crisis - were deliberately organised by the Kremlin to express Russian unease over the US missile defence system. The State Department reiterated that the 'shield' does not threaten Russia and dispelled the threat of a second 'Cuban missile crisis', but Russia's warning will not have gone unnoticed.

• Trade claims

The Cuban government claims that its exports of goods increased from US$3.2bn in 2006 to US$4bn in 2007. This is plausible, if only because of the run-up in nickel prices. Less plausible - especially since the government is claiming that the economy grew fast in 2007 - is that imports increased from US$9.5bn to only US$10.2bn. Cuba's oil bill, even with Venezuela's offer of cheap payments, should have increased by more than that on any reputable accounting system.