Caribbean & Central America - July 2026

Comparisons between Suriname and oil-booming Guyana are irresistible, but the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest report on Suriname – Post-Financing Assessment Discussions – adds some important notes of caution.

The example of what is happening in neighbouring Guyana is hugely encouraging for Suriname. Since US oil company ExxonMobil discovered a vast offshore reservoir in the Stabroek block in 2015, with production starting in 2019, Guyana’s GDP per capita (at current prices, IMF) has increased from US$5,790 to US$33,170 in 2025. Quarterly production in the first quarter of 2026 was 900,000 barrels per day (bpd), bringing in record revenues of US$761m. By 2030, Guyana could be producing 1.7m bpd of crude oil. Cost recovery on the Stabroek Block should be achieved this year after which Guyana’s share of oil profits will rise from 12.5% to 50%.

Suriname’s position, however, is significantly different. It is not just running a few years behind Guyana in oil exploration, with its first significant discoveries in Block 58 not coming until 2020, it also faces greater challenges. Oil industry experts caution that Suriname’s reservoirs are more complex than those of Guyana and require more careful development planning. Nor have the discoveries to-date been as large as those in Guyana. Development timelines are longer and costs higher.

Nevertheless, more than 750m barrels in recoverable oil have been identified in Block 58, and a final investment decision (FID) of US$10.5bn for the GranMorgu project was confirmed in October 2024. Production, with a maximum capacity of 220,000 bpd is expected to begin in 2028. The project is a joint venture between French oil giant TotalEnergies (40%), the US’s APA Corporation (40%), and Suriname’s state-owned Staatsolie (20%). Furthermore, TotalEnergies is expected to start a new round of exploration in 2027. The plan is to drill four new exploration wells in Block 58.

At the same time, in June Malaysian-owned Petronas Suriname reported two new discoveries in Block 52, bringing its discoveries to eight successful wells with total reserves of more than 1bn barrels of oil equivalent.

Back in 2015, when Guyana made its first big discovery, the two countries had almost exactly the same GDP per capita (Suriname, US$5,760; Guyana, US$5,790). Now, while Guyana’s GDP per capita has surged to US$33,170, Suriname’s is languishing at US$8,860. This must be frustrating for Suriname, but the IMF at least sees this as an important time for preparation. In its latest report on Suriname, released on 10 June, the IMF warns that reform momentum has been slowing and that it needs to be regained. One specific problem is that inflation is again in double digits, with inflationary pressures increasing, “due to the lagged effects of pre-election fiscal slippages and overly loose monetary policy”.

The IMF warns: “It is critical to put in place a new monetary policy framework prior to the oil boom that is centred on short-term interest rates as the primary policy instrument…Agreeing on a five-year fiscal plan and associated spending limits (as part of the 2027 budget) and operationalizing the sovereign wealth fund are essential to safeguard policy credibility. There is also a need to quickly implement the procurement law and revise anti-corruption legislation.”

The IMF wants the government to broaden the tax base, improve revenue administration, and phase out fuel and electricity subsidies. With regard to the latter, the IMF notes that following the recent rise in oil prices, the government announced a cap on prices of fuel, “effectively reversing the withdrawal of fuel subsidies under the program”. It adds: “Electricity subsidies also remain in place and are set to become more costly with rising oil prices.”

For the IMF, price subsidies “blur the market signal of a scarce commodity” and can become very costly. They are also untargeted. “The government should phase out these subsidies (especially for businesses and at higher consumption levels) and focus on targeted social support to those in need while strengthening the social safety net.”

The IMF says that gradually increasing the electricity price to reach “cost recovery” could generate 2% of GDP in fiscal saving as well as incentivising investment in generation capacity and grid modernisation.

With regard to tax, the IMF says there are opportunities to broaden the tax base and improve revenue administration. For instance, “the scope of excise taxes could be increased” and better use of information technology could improve tax compliance. In its last Article IV Consultation report, issued in February, the IMF said that excise revenues are low by international standards. It recommends increasing rates on alcohol and sugary drinks and introducing excises on gambling and single-use plastics.

However, in the June report the IMF acknowledges, “such tasks are complicated by capacity constraints, a political landscape that requires careful consensus building, and social pressures to increase spending”.

Governance is another IMF concern. It urges full compliance with the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), including “timely disclosure” of payments and revenues, the publication of oil and gas contracts, greater transparency of state-owned enterprises’ “quasi-fiscal activities”, and more transparent disclosure of gold mining royalties.

A key IMF concern is corruption. It sees “a short window of opportunity” to improve transparency and strengthen anti-corruption mechanisms ahead of large-scale oil inflows. The IMF urges the “swift passage of amendments to the anti-corruption law to strengthen the income and asset declaration regime and its effective implementation”. In its Article IV report in February, the IMF calls for mandatory declaration of income and assets of politically exposed persons.

The IMF also emphasises the importance of a new procurement law that requires the publication of all tenders, procurement contracts, names of awarded entities and their beneficial owners, and the names of the public officials who awarded the contracts. There should also be “ex-post validation of delivery of the contracted service”.

Another challenge for Suriname is to build local capacity that can benefit from the booming oil industry, and it is making progress. Staatsolie is running training programmes in partnership with universities, and TotalEnergies is committed to using local suppliers where possible, but there is a long way to go before the oil industry’s demand for skilled labour, such as welders, engineers, and logistics specialists, can be met from the domestic labour pool.

On the plus side, the economy is experiencing reasonable growth as the country prepares itself for the oil bonanza. In 2025, the non-natural resource economy is estimated to have grown by more than 4% and is expected to reach 4.7% in 2026. In its Article IV assessment, the IMF adds that “oil field development and relatively stable gold production are expected to support growth of around 4% until 2028, when offshore oil production is expected to push growth to around 30%”.