Andean Group - July 2026

The far-right populist Abelardo de la Espriella scraped a narrow victory over left-wing continuity candidate Iván Cepeda in Colombia’s 21 June presidential run-off, setting the stage for a sharp U-turn on many of the policies of outgoing President Gustavo Petro. First and foremost, De la Espriella is planning to scrap Petro’s flagship ‘total peace’ initiative, which entailed negotiations with illegal armed groups. He has pledged a hardline crackdown reminiscent of the ‘democratic security’ policy of former president Álvaro Uribe (2002-2010). This, he says, would be bolstered by direct military support from the US, where President Donald Trump’s administration has welcomed the change of direction in Bogotá.

At the time of writing on 25 June, preliminary results from the electoral authority (Registraduría) showed that, with 99.99% of votes counted, De la Espriella led Cepeda by 49.66%-48.70%. This equated to a lead of around 251,000 votes, which local media described as the closest run-off result in modern Colombian history. De la Espriella’s narrow lead initially fuelled claims of foul play from Cepeda’s campaign, although Cepeda eventually acknowledged defeat on 24 June, three days after the vote, and said he was withdrawing the appeals, paving the way for De la Espriella to take office unimpeded on 7 August.

• Fraud claims

  Responding to the preliminary results, President Petro claimed that there had been “many irregularities” and that “we have evidence of a change of IP address on several of the Registraduría’s servers” which “means that the software was compromised and others wrote data for polling stations”. Petro claimed that “the only entity in the world capable of doing that is the state of Israel”, with whose government he has repeatedly clashed. Petro’s allegations of foul play continued on 24 June, when Cepeda conceded defeat, with Petro claiming that the election should be annulled because of “intervention” from US President Donald Trump, who endorsed De la Espriella.

When he does so, he is expected to rip up much of President Petro’s agenda, beginning with the ‘total peace’ initiative. This was launched with much fanfare after Petro took office in 2022 and aimed, via simultaneous negotiations with a long list of guerrilla, paramilitary, and drug trafficking groups, to bring about a wave of demobilisations. The peace talks struggled to make headway and, four years later, the only group to have demobilised is the Comuneros del Sur – a breakaway faction of the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) guerrilla group [SSR-26-03].

The disappointing results of Petro’s peace plan became a central issue in the election campaign, not least because Cepeda, the candidate of Petro’s Pacto Histórico coalition, was once a leading backer of the ‘total peace’ initiative. Even Cepeda, however, sought to distance himself from the policy on the campaign trail. Although he said his government would be open to negotiations, his manifesto stated that “we will not allow dialogue to be used as a strategy for the military or economic strengthening of armed organisations” – one of the main criticisms of ‘total peace’. Cepeda’s main proposals for peace involved the full implementation of the 2016 peace accords with the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc) guerrilla group, to boost the development of conflict-ridden areas and ensure their integration with the rest of the country.

De la Espriella, in contrast, vowed that under his leadership there would be no talks with insurgent or criminal groups. His manifesto stated that “Petro’s Total Peace is not a failed peace, it is a betrayal of the homeland”. It went on to set out a list of security priorities which include destroying coca crops by all means – including aerial fumigation, which was suspended by the constitutional court in 2015 due to environmental and public health concerns. Other key priorities include strengthening the prison system, which De la Espriella has said will entail the construction of 10 mega-prisons inspired by the notorious Centro de Confinamiento del Terrorismo (Cecot) in El Salvador.

De la Espriella is aiming to secure US assistance with his counterinsurgency and counternarcotics efforts, primarily through the use of US air power. In a February interview with French news agency AFP, he said that he would “immediately begin with bombardments of narco-terrorist camps and with fumigation”. He said that “this cannot be done without a strategic alliance with the US and the state of Israel”, which has also welcomed De la Espriella’s election following a deeply hostile bilateral relationship under Petro.

While the bombing of armed groups was already taking place under Petro, the direct involvement of the US military would mark a major change in Colombian security policy. President Trump has on several occasions threatened US military intervention to tackle criminal groups in Colombia, citing Petro’s alleged failure to combat drug trafficking. Trump, who endorsed De la Espriella ahead of the run-off, welcomed his election victory, writing on social media on 22 June that “I look forward to working together to build a powerful relationship between Colombia and the United States of America”.

There is little doubt that security issues will be the main focus of this relationship. On the same day, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth invited De la Espriella to “to work with the Department of War and the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition (A3C) [also known as the Shield of the Americas] to reinvigorate the military alliance between our two countries to end the production of deadly narcotics and eradicate the narco-terrorists that plague our hemisphere”. The following day, De la Espriella announced that Colombia would join the Shield of the Americas on 7 August – his first day in office.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also highlighted the importance of security alignment, while also noting other avenues for cooperation. Declaring that “Colombia’s best days are ahead,” Rubio said that the US “looks forward to working closely with your incoming administration to advance regional security cooperation, end illegal immigration to the United States, and strengthen our economic ties”.

Improved relations with Ecuador expected

The other government in the region that will be most eagerly awaiting a more militarised security policy in Colombia is that of Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa. Relations between Quito and Bogotá have soured dramatically since January, when Noboa imposed tariffs on Colombian goods that he described as a ‘security tax’ in response to Petro’s alleged failure to combat criminal groups in the border region. Colombia responded in kind and the trade war persisted for six months before both countries withdrew their tariffs following an 11 May order from the Comunidad Andina (CAN) trade bloc.

Noboa actively supported De la Espriella’s campaign by portraying the lifting of the Ecuadorean tariff as an agreement with the far-right candidate, with Noboa announcing the move during a video call with De la Espriella that was shared on social media the day before the election’s 31 May first round.

Responding to Noboa’s claims of Colombian security negligence, Petro has pointed out that drug seizures in Colombia have risen to an all-time high during his presidency, although this is likely to be a reflection of coca cultivation also hitting record levels. Petro has also accused Noboa of failing to get a grip on gangs which he said are fuelling the conflict in Colombia by smuggling arms to criminal groups.

In a sign of the warmer bilateral relationship that is likely to ensue after De la Espriella takes office, Noboa congratulated him with a social media post that stated that “Colombia chose order over impunity” and said that he and the president-elect “share the conviction that our region deserves security, progress, and governments that confront crime without excuses”.

Uribismo pledges support

A political outsider, De la Espriella’s far-right party Defensores de la Patria will have no representation in the next congress and will be dependent on coalition building. The right-wing Centro Democrático (CD), which is led by former president Álvaro Uribe (2002-2010) and was represented in the election by the third-placed Paloma Valencia, announced on 22 June that it would seek to forge a coalition with like-minded parties in congress in support of De la Espriella’s agenda. CD said in a statement that it “recognises in the ideas presented by the president-elect, Dr Abelardo de la Espriella, much of the ideology that the party has defended throughout its history,” particularly “security as a democratic value, entrepreneurship and investor confidence, social cohesion as a mechanism to attend to the most needy compatriots, and a small and transparent State with low taxes”.