Caribbean & Central America - September 2026

Government officials have visited the controversial Cobre Panamá mine as speculation over its potential reopening continues to grow.

On 24 August, Panama’s environment minister, Juan Carlos Navarro, visited the huge copper mine alongside a team of officials, with the stated aim of checking whether its owner, Canadian firm First Quantum Minerals (FQM), is adhering to the terms of a management plan. Navarro also launched a water quality monitoring programme in 15 communities around the mine. His visit came two days after around a dozen technicians from the ministry inspected the mine installations as part of ongoing surveillance efforts.

The open-pit copper mine is one of the largest in the world. It accounted for about 5% of Panama’s GDP and 2% of employment before it was shut down in 2023 under former president Laurentino Cortizo (2019-2024) following major unrest over a new contract, which the supreme court ultimately struck down [EB-23-12]. Rumours that the mine will reopen have intensified since President José Raúl Mulino took office in July 2024. FQM suspended arbitration against Panama over the mine last year, and in April this year President Mulino approved the removal, processing, and export of ore stockpiled at the mine before the suspension of operations.

More recently, a government-commissioned audit of the mine released at the end of July concluded that it is “broadly compliant” with its environmental obligations, although independent analysis rejected its findings. Civil society groups, led by Panamanian NGO Centro de Incidencia Ambiental (Ciam), said they had identified “serious contradictions, a significant absence of data and analysis and risks or dangers for the project’s areas”. Ciam also questioned the independence of the audit, alleging that the vast majority of its findings are based on self-reported data from FQM.

The government has also formed an interministerial commission to evaluate the mine’s performance, and media reports suggest that officials are exploring potential ways of reopening the mine while minimising public opposition. In one Reuters report published on 22 July, an unnamed former government adviser said “it is clear that the government wants to open the mine with First Quantum…But it still fears social unrest”. It also cited two people familiar with the development as saying Panama “is considering creating a state-owned mining firm to partner” with FQM to reopen the mine. 

Negotiating a new contract between this new state-owned firm and FQM could allow Panama to capture more economic benefits from the mine, particularly as global copper prices have risen significantly since Cobre Panamá was shuttered. This could help to tamp down opposition to the mine in some quarters, particularly if the government is able to articulate a credible plan for how the money will be used to deal with demands for social spending.

The economic case for restarting operations is easy to understand, with stockpile processing operations alone already adding around 1,000 jobs and Mulino keen to boost GDP growth and state revenue to shore up the country’s fiscal position. But the political risk is considerable, with controversy surrounding the mine a catalyst for some of Panama’s largest protests in decades. In addition, the country’s supreme court ruled that the contract governing the concession was unconstitutional. This means a new contract would have to be drawn up, but this could contravene a 2023 law which bans new mining concessions. The creation of a state-owned mining firm could help circumvent this ban, and legal experts such as former president of the national bar association, Juan Carlos Araúz, have said that the plan is “viable”.

However, it would be likely to result in legal challenges, with those who oppose the mine already demonstrating a willingness to file court papers: in June, judges said they would consider a petition arguing that the government permit to process copper stockpiles should be cancelled because it could constitute a reactivation of the mine. There could also be challenges on environmental grounds, with the implementation of water quality monitoring showing that these issues remain unresolved.

Mulino therefore faces a delicate balancing act. Restarting mine operations would bring clear benefits to the national economy and could remove a major source of legal uncertainty that appears to have had a chilling effect on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in recent years. However, any perception that the government is attempting to override the supreme court, or disregard public concerns over the mine’s environmental impact, risks social unrest that would have a negative economic impact at a time when Mulino is trying to rebuild investor confidence. This suggests that Mulino’s cautious and technocratic approach is likely to continue, making rapid progress towards a full reopening unlikely. 

Stockpile

In a report released on 28 July on its second quarter results, First Quantum Minerals (FQM) estimated the total stockpile at Cobre Panamá at approximately 38m tonnes of mineralised ore “at varying grades, containing approximately 70,000 tonnes of recoverable copper, sufficient to support twelve months of processing at current rates”. 

Timeframe

The interministerial commission is reportedly set to send its recommendation regarding the mine’s future to Mulino by the end of the year, and the president himself has said that a decision on the future of the mine will be technical, rather than political. "I firmly believe that everything that is done must be based on verifiable and valid information," he said in a speech at the beginning of July.