Brazil & Southern Cone - September 2026

Diplomatic tensions rose between Brazil and Paraguay in July, when Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva blamed Paraguay for invading Brazil in the 19^th century and starting the War of the Triple Alliance (1864-1870), which is the deadliest inter-state armed conflict in the history of Latin America. Paraguayan authorities expressed outrage at Lula’s comments and summoned the Brazilian ambassador for consultations.

On 24 July President Lula visited a factory of arms manufacturer Avibras Aeroco in Brazil’s São Paulo state and spoke of the need to boost investment in the defence sector. He said that Brazil’s armed forces need to be armed and equipped so that “we can walk with our heads held high” and ensure that nobody can meddle with Brazil. Lula also said that Brazil is a peaceful nation but suggested the country should be prepared for a potential threat. He then alluded to a historical example of a past invasion of Brazilian territory – the Paraguayan War, also known as the War of the Triple Alliance.

In his speech at the factory, Lula said: “We like peace. But we cannot forget that on one fine day, Paraguay decided to invade Brazil. It invaded Corumbá [a city in the modern Brazilian state of Mato Grosso do Sul].” Lula was referring to the launch of the Mato Grosso campaign in December 1864 led by Paraguay’s military strongman leader Francisco Solano López (1862-1870), who saw initial success with the capture of Brazilian forts along the Paraguay River and went on to occupy the historical Brazilian province of Mato Grosso until Brazil retook the territory in 1868.

In the days after Lula’s speech, Paraguayan politicians from across the ideological spectrum expressed outrage at this portrayal of Brazil as the victim and Paraguay as the aggressor. On 29 July Paraguay’s senate approved a motion submitted by opposition senator Eduardo Nakayama (Partido Liberal Radical Auténtico, PLRA) to formally reject Lula’s comments. The motion stated that the Brazilian president’s comments “distort the historical facts” about the cause of the War of the Triple Alliance and ignore the previous warnings that Paraguay had sent to Brazil in 1864 concerning its intervention in Uruguay.

The senate’s motion expressed the Paraguayan interpretation that Solano López’s invasion of Brazilian territory was a response to Brazil’s 1864 military intervention in Uruguay, highlighting that the War of the Triple Alliance was sparked by the Uruguayan War of 1864-1865, which was a civil war that expanded into a regional conflict. The Empire of Brazil was allied to Uruguay’s Colorado party led by Venancio Flores, who launched a rebellion in 1863 with the aim of overthrowing Uruguay’s government led by the Blanco party. In 1864 Brazilian troops joined the Colorados’ armed insurrection in Uruguay. During this period, Paraguay’s main regional ally was Uruguay’s President Bernardo Berro (1860-1864) of the Blanco party, and Solano López warned Brazil not to intervene in Uruguay, warnings which were ignored.

Ultimately the Colorado rebellion, with its Brazilian reinforcements, was successful. The Blanco government was toppled, and the Uruguayan War ended in 1865 with Flores installed as president in February that year. Just a few months later, the Colorado-led Uruguayan government signed a treaty with Argentina and Brazil in May 1865 to forge the Triple Alliance, which aimed to stop the incoming Paraguayan army and remove Solano López from power. The text of the treaty explicitly called for the overthrow the Paraguayan government. Having already invaded Brazilian territory in late 1864 and early 1865, Solano López aimed to continue the march to Uruguay and provide armed support for the Blanco party. He sought permission from Argentina’s President Bartolomé Mitre (1862-1868) to allow Paraguayan troops to cross Argentina’s Corrientes province to reach Uruguay. But Mitre denied the request, and in March 1865 the Solano López government declared war on Argentina, with the Paraguayan forces launching its invasion of Corrientes in April.

By the end of 1865, the Triple Alliance had repelled the Paraguayan advance into Corrientes. The allied Brazilian, Argentine, and Uruguayan forces would spend the next few years clashing with Solano López in what would be some of the bloodiest battles in South American history. In 1869 the Triple Alliance captured and pillaged Asunción, and Brazilian troops killed Solano López in 1870. During the sacking of Asunción, Brazilian soldiers took spoils of war which are still in Brazil today and which Paraguay wants returned.

• Christian Cannon

On 26 August Paraguay’s foreign minister, Rubén Ramírez Lezcano, met with the head of the lower house, Raúl Latorre, to discuss efforts to negotiate the recovery of artefacts such as the ‘Cañón Cristiano’ (Christian Cannon), a cannon made during the war from melted down church bells which was seized by Brazilian troops in 1870 and today remains in the national history museum in Rio de Janeiro. The cannon has since been hailed by Paraguayan nationalists as physical symbol of Solano López’s resistance against the forces of the Triple Alliance. At the time of writing, there has not been any suggestion from Brazil that it will return the cannon to Paraguay.

Historians’ interpretations on the causes of the war have varied significantly, with some traditional arguments portraying Solano López as an overly ambitious dictator who was known to have deep admiration for his contemporary in France, Emperor Napoleon III, and for the Bonapartist political model’s emphasis on industrialisation and assertive foreign policy. This interpretation states that Solano López believed he could have similarly led Paraguay on a path to rapid development and become a military and economic heavyweight in the region strong enough to declare wars against its large neighbours.

In the 20^th century, revisionist interpretations were later argued by some Marxist historians, as well as by Paraguayan nationalists such as Paraguay’s military dictator Alfredo Stroessner (1954-1989). These narratives depicted an imperialist aggression by Brazil, which deployed its troops to meddle in Uruguay and install its ally, Flores’ Colorado party, in a government that would be more amenable to opening up the country to foreign business – a threat which they say a martyr like Solano López gave his life fighting against, in order to maintain the regional balance of power in the Río de La Plata basin and protect Paraguay’s autonomy.

Response

With the War of the Triple Alliance still remembered as one of the most destructive and painful moments in Paraguay’s history and Solano López officially celebrated today as a national hero, it was perhaps striking that President Santiago Peña did not publicly comment on his Brazilian counterpart’s 24 July speech. Despite the clear outrage from Paraguayan lawmakers, Peña appears to have refrained from upsetting the fairly stable relations between Brazil and Paraguay. On 30 July Paraguay’s foreign ministry summoned the Brazilian ambassador in Asunción, José Antonio Marcondes de Carvalho, for consultations, but the diplomatic consequences of Lula’s comments have not extended beyond a slap on the wrist. On 31 July Vice President Pedro Alliana gave a press conference in which he reiterated Paraguay’s rejection of Lula’s “distorted” explanation about the war, but he also said that the Peña administration will work towards a “constructive and positive” agenda and not “drag this issue out” any further.

From the Brazilian perspective, Lula is the midst of a re-election campaign, with the presidential election due to take place in October. Appealing to national pride could be a strategy to boost Lula’s popularity ahead of the election. Lula’s campaign manifesto makes clear calls to defend national sovereignty, although it does not make explicit mentions of the US government, which made several controversial moves in June and July which the Lula administration has criticised as an affront to Brazilian sovereignty, such as the designation of Brazilian criminal gangs as terrorist groups [SSR-26-07] and the imposition of new tariffs [EB-26-08]. However, instead of directly criticising the US in his 24 July speech, Lula’s comments appear to have caused a flare-up in diplomatic tensions by touching on a highly sensitive topic in Paraguay’s history.

Support for defence sector

On 7 August Brazil’s ruling Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) published Lula’s campaign manifesto which listed 13 policy areas the president would prioritise. In the sector regarding defence of national sovereignty, the manifesto stated that “national defence demands well-equipped armed forces and a solid defence industry, capable of protecting Brazilian territory and its natural resources from external threats”. It goes on to pledge that Lula will boost public funding for the defence sector and highlighted previous funding for the sector through programmes such as the government’s ‘Novo PAC’ infrastructure investment initiative.