Caribbean & Central America - October 2009 (ISSN 1741-4458)

Last month the supreme electoral court (CSE) authorised four alliances and three parties to compete in the scheduled March 2010 regional elections for the North Atlantic Autonomous Region (Raan) and the South Atlantic Autonomous Region (Raas) on the Caribbean Coast. The vote is the first test of  the country's heavily discredited electoral authorities since the November 2008 municipal elections, which saw the ruling Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional (FSLN) accused of widespread fraud.

Of the various political groupings, the only parties with any support on the Caribbean coast, which is home to various indigenous groups including the Miskitos, Mayangnas and Afro-Nicaraguans, are the FSLN (heading an alliance which includes the indigenous Yatama party) and the nominal opposition party of former president Arnoldo Alemán (1997-2002), the Partido Liberal Constitucionalista (PLC). The FSLN currently controls the Raan and the PLC the Raas.

The contest is attracting interest from the international community, not so much in terms of the battle between the different parties but rather the electoral process itself, given the outcry over by the November 2008 vote, which took place in the absence of authorised international and local monitors. This resulted in the US definitively culling US$62m (of a total of US$175m) in aid to the government of President Daniel Ortega through the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC). The European Union (EU) also withheld US$75m in funds amid transparency concerns. In early September, the EU confirmed it would release a US$10m loan for education as a gesture of “goodwill" in light of the progress made towards restoring credibility to the CSE. However the onus remains very much on Ortega to ensure that this confidence - which appears borne out of assurances regarding electoral observation - continues.

The Caribbean coast elections will also prove a test of support for the indigenous Miskito independence movement, led by the Miskito Council of Elders in Bilwi, the provincial capital of the Raan. The Miskito Council had announced in April this year that it was seceding to form an independent Nación Miskito and consequently would not recognise the elections [RC-09-05].

• Opposition flailing

In a recent voter survey by pollsters M&R Consultores, 50.3% of respondents considered themselves “independent" and unaffiliated with any political party. The survey put the ruling FMLN on 32.8% support, below the 38% with which it won the 2006 presidential election; the opposition PLC on 9% and the party of opposition leader, Eduardo Montealegre, Partido Liberal Independiente-Vamos con Eduardo, on 5.4%. The survey of 1,600 people was carried out between 23 September and 2 October and had a 2.5% error margin.