Caribbean & Central America - October 2009 (ISSN 1741-4458)

The country's export revenues fell 9% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2009 to US$1.13bn, according to the Centro de Trámites de las Exportaciones (Cetrex). Export volumes, according to Cetrex, were up by almost 1% year-on-year at 1.1m t.The main reason for the fall in revenues was lower prices for coffee, gold, peanuts , seafood, beans and oil products. Cetrex also noted that fewer crops were planted this year than in 2008. In 2008 the country exported goods worth US$1.54bn. This was 24% up on the figure for 2007 and the best export result for 30 years. The government expects marginal (between zero and 0.5%) real annual GDP growth in 2009. In 2008 real GDP rose 3.2%.  For 2010, the government is forecasting growth of 1%. This looks conservative given the relative strength of exports in 2009.

Inflation: In September, inflation was 0.35%, much the same as in August. In the first nine months of 2009, the accumulated rate was 0.19%. The rate for the past 12 months was 0.01%, well down on 13.8% in 2008. The government is hoping that inflation in 2009 will be between 5% and 7%. This looks far too high.