Caribbean & Central America - February 2011 (ISSN 1741-4458)

On 14 February, Fidel Castro, Cuba's former president, hailed the success of the Egyptian people “and their valiant struggle for political rights and social justice" which had led to the “overthrow of the principal US ally in the Arab world". The irony of Castro's statement is that his opponents in Miami were speculating, simultaneously, that what had happened in Egypt poses a major threat to the Castro brothers' regime in Cuba.

The anti-Castroists' premise is that Cuba is the only country in the Latin America where there has not been a democratic alternation of power in the past 50 years. The anti-Castroists further argue that the Castros' regime is corrupt, authoritarian and effectively bankrupt, just like the regime of ex-President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt. However, the weakness of the anti-Castroists' argument is that the Castro brothers have never pretended that they were not authoritarian; unlike Egypt, Cuba does not yet have the internet and cell phone capacity for opposition politicians to organise major demonstrations or to publicise repression instantly.

Nonetheless, President Raúl Castro does seem to be flirting with liberalisation. On 10 February Cuba's communications capacity got a boost when the laying of the fibre optic cable from Venezuela was officially completed, although the cable will not come into full operational use until July. The government admits that this will enhance the country's internet capacity, (which had previously been satellite based) but it is far from clear whether the government will allow ordinary Cubans the freedom to watch and research whatever they want. The bulk of Cuba's 1.4m regular internet users only have web access from work; few have access from home, let alone on their mobile telephones as Egyptians do.

To be fair, the prominent Cuba-based blogger, Yoani Sánchez, did note on 8 February that the government had unblocked her "Generación Y" site and its associated website (www.desdecuba.com). She said that it was not clear whether this development represented a change of strategy by the government or merely a tactical move designed to deflect criticism during the week of the Feria Internacional de la Informática in Havana.

Another sign of liberalisation was the freeing of two more prominent dissidents on 12 February. The timing of their release is interesting because the opposition is preparing for two major events. The most immediate is the first anniversary of the death (on 23 February) of Orlando Zapata, after an 86-day hunger strike. Elizardo Sánchez, spokesman for the Comisión Cubana de Derechos Humanos, said that Zapata's “murder by the state" would be commemorated by many opposition and human rights organisations. The second event for which the opposition is preparing is the VI party congress in April which, President Castro hopes, will re-launch the Cuban Revolution. The main change appears to be an admission that the market has a use in setting economic priorities.

The two dissidents freed were Héctor Maseda and Angel Moya. Both are members of the dissident 'Grupo de los 75', who have been in prison since 2003. Maseda, 68, is married to Laura Pollán, one of the leaders of the Damas de Blanco (female relatives of imprisoned dissidents).  Moya, 46, a construction worker, is married to Berta Soeler, another prominent member of the Damas de Blanco. Their release, and the swelling of the regular Sunday demonstration by the Damas de Blanco with younger protesters, suggested that what has happened in Egypt has both shaken the Cuban government and encouraged its opponents. Maseda was released on a provisional licence: previously he had refused to accept his freedom on these terms. He changed his mind in order to remain within the law. Seven of the Grupo de los 75 are still in prison.

• “A nation on the take"

Fidel Castro in the most recent of his “Reflections", entitled “On the revolutionary rebellion in Egypt" and published in the official media, claimed that President Hosni Mubarak's policy was “to exploit and rob his own people". Separately, WikiLeaks cables from the US Special Interest Section in Havana stated that Cuba (in 2006, when the cable was sent, so two years before Rául replaced Fidel as president) was “a nation on the take" and quoted an unnamed Swiss businessman as saying “Just like everywhere in the world, a US$1m contract gets you US$100,000 in the bank".