Caribbean & Central America - March 2011 (ISSN 1741-4458)

Guyana's main opposition party, People's National Congress Reform (PNCR) has picked retired brigadier David Granger as its presidential candidate for the elections likely to be held in August 2011.  The ruling People's Progressive Party-Civic (PPPC) has yet to choose who will replace outgoing president Bharrat Jagdeo, but it has not been slow in beginning the inevitable mudslinging towards the PNCR's new leader.

The curiosity of Guyana's electoral history is the length of time that the two main political parties have maintained their ascendancy once elected into power.  The PNC held power for 28 years before giving way to the PPP which has now had 19 consecutive years in power. 

There are multiple uncertainties about the coming election, only one of which has been resolved by the PNCR's election of a new leader.  The most obvious point is that both parties will go into the election with fresh faces at the head.  For the ruling PPPC, this will be doubly dramatic as its new leader will not be either a Jagan (party patriarch Cheddi Jagan was followed by his widow Janet Jagan) or chosen by a Jagan - as was the case with President Jagdeo who was Janet Jagan's finance minister.

The PNCR leadership election was far from being decisive and there are dangers that the divisions might be slow to mend.  David Granger, a former brigadier in the Guyana Defence Force (GDF) only just edged out former finance minister Carl Greenidge by 279 votes to 264.  But the fight to succeed Jagdeo at the helm of the PPPC is itself turning into a bitter struggle.  Former Information Minister Moses Nagamootoo has criticized President Jagdeo for opposing a secret ballot for the selection process.  The main contenders for the position of PPPC presidential candidate are Nagamootoo, House Speaker Ralph Ramkarran, party general secretary Donald Ramotar, Home Affairs Minister Clement Rohee, and presidential adviser Gail Teixeira.

The ruling party's main advantage is that it can point to robust economic growth in recent years at a time when most of the rest of the world has been struggling.  Average economic growth from 2006-2010 was 4%.  This enabled the government to lower corporation tax by 5% in the January budget (to 40% for commercial companies and to 30% for manufacturing firms).  The country's debt-to-GDP ratio is around 60%, down from 93.1% at the end of 2006 and significantly lower than many Caribbean Community (Caricom) countries.

Guyana's economic resilience has come from its natural resources, particularly gold, bauxite, sugar, and rice, with hopes that offshore oil could in due course become a significant earner as well.

However, those opposed to the government say that 19 years of PPP rule has brought little progress on social deprivation.  One particular area of criticism has been the fall in the percentage of GDP spent on education, from 8.5% in 2000 to 6.1% in 2007.  The rise in crime is also seen as a major failure of government, particularly as it has allegedly involved officially sanctioned vigilantism.  The 2010 Amnesty International report noted the “enforced disappearance or killing" of more than 200 people between 2002 and 2006.

No doubt fearing that issues of good governance could prove a weakness for the PPPC in the upcoming elections, the ruling party was quick to exploit concerns about Granger's past as soon as his victory was declared.  One of the negative legacies that the PNCR carries is a history of election rigging.  On 6 March, President Jagdeo said that Granger, as a former member of the GDF, was associated with a period of repression and with the seizing of ballot boxes by the army.

In a speech to mark the 14th anniversary of the death of Cheddi Jagan, Jagdeo said: “Make sure people are educated about the past.  Granger was one of the proponents of the PNC party paramountcy so they were counting on poor memories and they are counting on the lack of knowledge on the party of the young people...The PNC has chosen a presidential candidate who was very active in that era - the era of repression, the era of starving our people."

The PNCR immediately complained to the Organization of American States (OAS) about Jagdeo's “provocative" statements, which it said “could reignite racial conflicts in the country".  Traditionally, the PNCR draws its support from the Afro-Guyanese population while the PPPC is supported by Indo-Guyanese.