Brazil - 8 July 2003

Think-tanks sitting outside the country see Reds under the bed in Lula's Brazil, and predict that the MST could become Latin America's next narcoguerrillas. 

Strategic Forecasting, Inc (Stratfor), which specialises in security issues, describes a link-up between organised crime in Brazil's big cities and the landless millions the MST says it represents as 'the next logical step' for the drug traffickers in Rio and São Paulo, who have already 'a political quasi-ideology that claims their activities are motivated by ideals of social justice.' 

Alliances between crime groups and the MST would, says Stratfor, 'create an internal security nightmare' for Lula's government, as well as 'discourage investment, undermine productivity and weaken the economy's growth'. It also predicts that human rights abuses by the security forces would grow, and tension would increase between the government and the armed forces. Stratfor also sees the potential for spillover, with the MST, now transformed into a narcoguerrilla movement, extending its tentacles of evil into neighbouring Bolivia and Peru. 

Meanwhile, the rightwing US organisation Center for Security Policy has slammed President George W. Bush's government for failing 'to hold Brazilian President Lula da Silva responsible for his sponsorship of political extremism in the hemisphere.' It cites as an example the Foro de São Paulo, 'a collection of Latin American extremist political groups including old Marxist-Leninist guerrilla and terrorist movements', such as Farc and ELC, both from Colombia, and Peru's MRTA. 

The Center says Bush's 'free-trade-über-alles' policies have prevailed over his avowed intent to crack down on international terrorism, accusing the President of having 'virtually neglected Latin America' and of being 'unwilling to confront alarming anti-US trends'.