Brazil & Southern Cone - 26 October 2004

With under a weeks to go to the municipal elections (on 31 October), President Lagos has entered the fray, backing government candidates in various regions across the country. On 19 October Lagos travelled north to lend his support, via radio interviews, to would-be Concertación mayors and councillors in Arica, Ovalle, La Serena and Coyhaique. The president knows, however, that the real political battle will be fought over the mayoralty of Santiago, and could give a strong indication of the way the wind is blowing ahead of the presidential elections in 2005. 

Joaquin Laví­n, leader of the opposition rightwing Alianza por Chile, is stepping down as mayor of Santiago. The two men competing for the position are Raúl Alcaino, a charismatic businessman of little political experience from the Unión Democrata Independiente (UDI) part of the APC coalition, and Jorge Schaulsohn Brodsky, an experienced politician from the Partido por la Democracia (PPD), part of Concertación. What makes the race interesting is that this year, unlike in 2000 or 1996, the municipal elections are only one year away from the presidential vote. An opinion poll conducted by El Mercurio and Opina SA, published on 10 October, showed Laví­n as the man most Chileans expected to be the next president. Confusingly, however, when those polled were asked who they would actually vote for, 45.7% chose the leftwing candidate Michelle Bachelet ahead of Laví­n (43.7%). Soledad Alvear, another possible Concertación hopeful, trailed both by some distance.

If Raúl Alcaino does not win in Santiago, he could return to his business interests, having enjoyed his experiences and come off none the worse. For Laví­n, however, it would be a major blow to his hopes for the presidency as many could interpret an APC failure as a verdict on Laví­n's mayoralty. It would also catapault Schaulsohn into the higher echelons of the Concertación coalition. Failure for Schaulsohn would also be tough: his party, the PPD, has always been a minor player within the coalition and the mayoralty of Santiago would provide a major boost to its standing.