Brazil & Southern Cone - May 2006 (ISSN 1741-4431)

Two opinion polls published on 24 May show Lula well ahead of his main rival, the former governor of São Paulo, Geraldo Alckmin. Support for other candidates is largely irrelevant. According to DataFolha, Lula has 45% support to Alckmin's 22%. In the Sensus poll Lula wins 40.5% of the votes while Alckmin is on 18.5% support. It is important to point out that in Brazil voting is compulsory, but electors can show their dissatisfaction by spoiling their ballots or by leaving them blank. In the former case votes are annulled, in the latter they go to the candidate with the largest number of votes. This could add a further 5% or 8% to Lula's bid.

The results reveal that Lula has succeeded in shrugging off the corruption scandals that have rocked his administration. Despite the opposition's efforts to keep the scandals fresh in the minds of voters, Lula's cynical comment that all parties are equally corrupt seems to have had a much more persuasive effect. Also, he derived considerable assistance from new corruption allegations against congressmen from almost every party. According to the federal police some 60 of them approved the release of "emergency resources" for the purchase of medical and educational material without prior tendering, supposedly in exchange for kickbacks. 

PSDB-PFL alliance

The rightwing Partido do Frente Liberal (PFL) has finally picked a senator, José Jorge, to run as the vice-presidential candidate on Alckmin's ticket. Yet the violent riots in São Paulo (see page 3) and the resulting poor opinion poll performance put the prospective coalition between the PFL and Alckmin's Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB) into turmoil. The alliance was supposed to be sealed on 29 May, but the official ceremony had to be postponed so the two parties can sort out their - very public - differences. 

The PFL's leaders were already worried about Alckmin's anonymity at a national level. Yet by mid-April they seemed to have decided to throw their weight behind his candidacy. They made alliance-negotiations very difficult, obliging a reluctant PSDB to withdraw candidates from local elections where the two parties are contenders, thus boosting the PFL's chances of winning seats in congress. The arm-wrestling for candidacies, however, created bitter resentment between the ostensible allies.

The prospective coalition was further shaken by the wave of violence in São Paulo. Alckmin left his post as governor to his surrogate, Cláudio Lembo, from the PFL. When the riots exploded, though, Alckmin preferred to keep a low profile, prompting key figures from the PFL to criticise his lack of support. The PSDB "caciques" who were already fuming at the PFL's intransigence decided it was time to reprimand the PFL, reminding its leaders who the junior partner is in the coalition. The dressing down did not play well in the PFL. 

In spite of the difficulties, the PSDB knows that José Jorge is an essential addition to Alckmin's bid. Like Lula, José Jorge hails from the north-eastern state of Pernambuco and his main job will be to promote Alckmin in the impoverished but populous region. Indeed, José Jorge's nomination has boosted Alckmin's support in the region to 10.1%, but support for Lula remains extraordinarily high at 58.6%. From the PFL's perspective, maintaining the alliance is essential not only to keep the PSDB away from competition in some states but it is also the only chance - however slim - to "see Lula out".

The PT's all-embracing alliance policy: PMDB on board?

Meanwhile, President Lula da Silva has yet to formalise his candidacy for the ruling Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT). This, however, is already taken for granted. The doubt that remains is with what party the PT will form a coalition. Crucially, Lula is waiting for the Partido do Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (PMDB) to reach a final decision on whether or not it will support his candidacy.

The PT's new leaders are convinced about the necessity of maintaining the old leadership's pragmatic approach to alliances in order to ensure not only Lula's victory but also the "governability" (i.e. support in congress) that a second term requires. This approach means forging alliances with any party of whatever ideological coloration, a controversial and divisive approach. The party's leftwing vocally censured the repetition of the "immoral alliances" of the current term, calling for an explicit ban on coalitions with parties from the right. The problem is that Brazil's main leftwing parties ceased to support the government long ago. 

Nonetheless the PT knows that Brazil's politico-electoral rules make it imperative for Lula to have a running-mate from another party. There are two names in mind: his current vice-president, José Alencar, who left his former rightwing party at the outset of the corruption scandals to join an evangelical party; and Ciro Gomes, the former national integration minister. Gomes is the PT's preferred choice, but his reputation was badly tarnished after he was expelled from his previous party, the leftwing Partido Popular Socialista, for deciding to stay in the government despite the corruption scandals.

Lula, however, still hopes to seal an alliance with the PMDB. The party has long ceased to have any clear political programme, but is still a powerful electoral machine: it is currently the largest party in both houses of congress and it will most likely continue to be so. The drawback is that the PMDB is irrevocably divided into two factions, one favouring an alliance with the government, the other utterly against it. 

Good news came for Lula after the PMDB voted not to put forward a candidate for the presidential race. The evangelical maverick Anthony Garotinho encountered intense resistance to his nomination. Yet Garotinho is very popular with the poor and, according to opinion polls, would be Lula's only obstacle to victory in the first round with support hovering around 10%. No decision is ever final with the PMDB, however. Proponents of an independent candidacy put forward the name of Senator Pedro Simon to challenge the - narrow - vote in yet another convention on 11 June. Garotinho seems to have given up his dream and made public his "total support" for Simon, who stands on some 4% support.