Brazil & Southern Cone - June 2006 (ISSN 1741-4431)

Roberto Lavagna is emerging as the most serious threat to President Néstor Kirchner's re-election ambitions. Although Kirchner's former economy minister is refusing to announce his candidacy for the presidential elections in 2007, he has let it be known that he feels Argentina needs "an alternative" and his putative bid has been endorsed by several prominent figures within the main opposition party, Unión Cí­vica Radical (UCR), and dissident Peronists from the Partido Justicialista (PJ).

A Lavagna candidacy first began to take shape in late May [see RBS-06-05] when the faction of the UCR led by former president Raúl Alfonsí­n and dissident Peronists aligned with former president Eduardo Duhalde and spoke openly of Lavagna as a plausible rival to Kirchner. At first Lavagna played it very cool but in June he launched probing attacks on the Kirchner administration, criticising some of the economic policies that it is putting in place and the foreign policy decision to seek closer and closer relations with Venezuela which culminated in welcoming the country into Mercosur. He immediately struck a nerve. Kirchner cannot abide criticism, as testified by his not infrequent sallies against the press.

Kirchner strikes back

On 2 June, with the Argentine press full of Lavagna, Kirchner dropped the strongest hint yet that he will seek re-election in 2007. He said that "the candidate will be an Argentine man or woman, a pingüino or a pingüina", a reference to himself and his wife, Senator Cristina Fernández, who he says would have all the credentials for the job.

The very next day his two cabinet heavyweights, the cabinet chief, Alberto Fernández, and the interior minister, Aní­bal Fernández, both dismissed Lavagna's challenge out of hand. Alberto Fernández said Lavagna had been put forward by "two former presidents [Alfonsí­n and Duhalde] trying to drag Argentina 20 years into the past". Aní­bal Fernández said he would "have to eat soup" to stand any chance of overhauling Kirchner.

Before revealing his intention to stand next year Lavagna appears to be monitoring the public's reaction to his criticism of the government. He is also waiting to see which strands of the political opposition he could lead. Alfonsí­n is calling for Lavagna to head a "centrist and progressive" coalition. On 11 June, in an interview with the Argentine daily La Nación, Lavagna criticised Kirchner's efforts to co-opt the opposition through the 'pluralist' political pact he proposed during a big rally in the Plaza de Mayo on 25 May. He said that Kirchner liked to talk about pluralism but "plurality only has one definition in the dictionary and it has nothing to do with hegemonic thinking".

Interestingly, former president Carlos Menem threw his hat into the ring on 9 June. He said a Lavagna candidacy would be "a strong candidacy" and hinted that an alliance between the two men might be possible. Lavagna's strongest alliance would probably be with Mauricio Macri, the leader of the centre-right Partido para una República con Oportunidades (Pro). Macri has not ruled out standing for election himself but he welcomed Lavagna's bid, saying that he would "strengthen the opposition". If he were to run with Macri, however, Lavagna would alienate Alfonsí­n's faction of the centre-left UCR. 

UCR mulls backing Lavagna

While Alfonsí­n wasted no time in offering his support to Lavagna, the rest of the party is torn between providing genuine opposition to Kirchner or working with him. At a UCR party summit held on 22 June, the president of the UCR, Roberto Iglesias, insisted that party leaders intent on forging the 'pluralist' political pact with the government should leave the organisation. Bold words but it is questionable how much authority Iglesias retains given that four out of six UCR provincial governors, from Mendoza, Rí­o Negro, Catamarca and Corrientes, failed to attend the meeting. The fifth absent governor, Gerardo Zamora of Santiago del Estero, was out of the country - accompanying Kirchner on his official visit to Spain. The only UCR governor to turn up was Roy Nikish of the Chaco. In addition to these five governors, as many as 15 UCR mayors of heavily populated municipalities have also subscribed to Kirchner's plan. They have been dubbed the 'K Radicals' because of their close ties to Kirchner.

Iglesias urged the party to rediscover its political identity, saying that "there are many governors who are confused, unsure of whether they are government or opposition". He said that those who wanted to work with Kirchner should declare themselves and move to the "other side".