Brazil & Southern Cone - October 2007 (ISSN 1471-4431

With less than a week until the 28 October presidential elections, Senator and First Lady, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, running on the Frente Para la Victoria (FPV) ticket, appear set for victory. Given the relative unpopularity of the government, critics are quick to highlight the failure of the opposition to capitalise on voter discontent as well as a "crisis" in party politics.

The most recent poll by Poliarquí­a Consultores published in national newspaper La Nación on 21 October shows Cristina with 40.9% of the vote, followed by Elisa Carrió of the centre-left Coalicion Civica with 14.5% and former economy minister and candidate for Una Nación Avanzada (UNA), Roberto Lavagna, in third place with 10.8%. According to Argentine electoral legislation, a candidate is declared winner if he or she wins 45% of the total votes or 40% of the total vote if the number of votes cast is 10% greater than that for the second-placed candidate. Director of Poliarquí­a Consultores, Fabián Perechodnik said that "unless something exceptional happens", Cristina is set to take the presidency.

However Cristina's consistently comfortable lead throughout the campaigning process is arguably in spite of, rather than due to, her husband President Néstor Kirchner's current government; a recent poll by Poliarquí­a showed support for Kirchner at 45%, its lowest level since he took office in 2003. Critics attribute the drop in popularity to the polemic over inflation, corruption, the energy crisis and crime levels. An earlier survey by the same firm, published on 6 October also showed that 62% of voters believe that corruption is growing; 76% that insecurity is increasing; and over 80% think that inflation is getting worse.

As well as serving as an indictment of the opposition for failing to capitalise on voter discontent, the situation has caused the local and international media to criticise Critina's refusal to engage with the press and her general lack of debate. Critics argue that the failure to present proposals and ideas is an affront to the democratic process. Chief of cabinet Alberto Fernández explained the decision by Cristina to refrain from participating in debates in the media in terms of the considerable gap between her and her competitors in the polls. 

The "Borocotó" phenomenon.
One factor identified by critics as leading to the seeming voter apathy and the current political panorama is the "Borocotó" phenomenon or prevalence of switching party allegiances. The term was coined after Eduardo Lorenzo Borocoto switched to the ruling Partido Justicialista having won a seat in the Buenos Aires legislature on the ticket of Mauricio Macri's centre-right opposition Propuesta Republicana (PRO) party. 

His case would by no means prove the exception. La Nación lists, among many other examples, the Buenos Aires Democracia Cristiana bench who are now backing Cristina's candidacy despite being made up of members with previous ties to different political movements. These include Patricia Siracusano, one of the founders of La Unión del Centro Democrático (Ucedé), Raúl Rabanaque Caballero previously an active member of the Partido Intransigente and a proponent of menemismo and the musician "Chango" Farí­as Gómez, who served as a Buenos Aires legislator for the Pro party and is now a candidate for Kirchnerismo and the Democracia Cristiana.

La Nacion also highlights the case of ex-dualdistas in the Buenos Aires province who staunchly opposed Kirchner in the 2005 legislative elections yet have since come out in favour of the President. 

Critics attribute the switching of allegiances to a more general crisis in party politics and ideologies. Riordan Roett, director of the Western Hemisphere program at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington told the Washington Post that "with the collapse of the Radical Party and the resignation of [President] Fernando de la Rúa in 2001, in a sense the only institutionalized opposition disappeared." Local analysts agree that the vacuum has been filled by personalities rather than institutionalised movements. 

Cristina abroad
Cristina has only recently appeared to focus on domestic voters. The Financial Times comments that her time spent abroad during her election campaign would suggest that "she is running for a job at the United Nations _ [rather] _ than the presidency of Argentina". 

Her most recent trips include New York, where she courted financiers, business leaders and diplomats on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. She also travelled to Brazil where she met Brazilian President Lula de Silva and discussed the deepening of the "strategic association" between both countries through the Mercosur, the issue of Venezuela's proposed membership in the organisation as well as investments in Bolivia's gas sector. However, her emphasis that her victory in the presidential race would mean "continuity" in terms of Brazil-Argentina relations has backfired as the Brazilian government and businesses have been annoyed by Kirchner's nationalistic policies which have damaged Brazil's hegemony in the region. According to Argentine press reports, the Argentine government has "worked behind the scenes" to prevent Petrobras acquiring Esso's operations in Argentina.

During both visits, she was questioned about the ongoing inflation dispute. Maintaining that inflation was "below 10%" annually while independent estimates place it at 17%, Cristina's ultimate evasion of the issue was commented on by the press. Similarly in Brazil, she was quizzed on the government's freeze on public tariffs which have reduced profits of Brazilian companies in Argentina by as much as 60%. The tariffs have been frozen since 2002, discouraging foreign investors from making the new investments. Again she ducked the issue and failed to provide any clear answers, responding that Argentina was going through a "process of re-industrialisation" and "deepening of competitiveness", so any change in the government's public tariffs' policy would have to "be balanced".

The main priorities facing the new President will include the need to address inflation, adjust tariffs and solve the energy deficit. The local press consider Cristina unlikely to introduce any major changes with regard to each of these issues. La Nación explains that unlike her competitors, she is not proposing a change to the current inflation policy while critics consider that subsidies will remain in place although could be more selective. In terms of energy, the government highlights that a policy is in place to identify and develop resources and alternative energy sources, the benefits of which will be seen in the future.

• Security concerns
  Three Buenos Aires policemen were murdered at a government communications post on 19 October, an act which President Néstor Kirchner claims is linked to the presidential election on 28 October. He added that the crime was either carried out by the "mafia" or by people linked to the military dictatorship that ruled the country from 1976 to 1983. Voters have repeatedly cited the worsening security situation in Argentina as a major black mark against the Kirchner administration, and the murder will heighten concerns.