Brazil & Southern Cone - March 2009 (ISSN 1741-4431)

The ruling Frente Amplio (FA) coalition celebrated its 38th anniversary in February. There was not much cause for celebration. After sweeping to power in 2002, becoming the first party in Uruguay's history to secure a congressional majority, and facing a weak opposition, it is suddenly in danger of hitting the self-destruct button. Finding a successor to the hugely popular President Tabaré Vázquez is fuelling acrimonious internal divisions, providing the opposition Blancos and Colorados with an unexpected lifeline.

José Mujica, the “official" pre-candidate for the ruling FA ahead of party primaries in June, had to cancel the start of his election campaign in Argentina in February after members of the party accused him of receiving campaign financing from “Kirchnerismo", the Argentine presidential couple's political movement. Tension between the factions of the FA loyal to Mujica and those who back his main rival, Danilo Astori, prompted a third candidate to enter the contest.

The setback to Mujica's campaign came when Uruguay's current affairs magazine, Búsqueda, quoted sources from within the FA as claiming that the Kirchnerista movement had printed thousands of flyers for Mujica ahead of his meeting in the University of Mar del Plata on 14 February, where he had hoped to attract some of the 400,000 Uruguayans living in Argentina.

Mujica, who days earlier had claimed he would not be employing an advertising team for his primary campaign, accused sectors within the FA of seeking to undermine his presidential bid. He cancelled the trip, but added that the episode had left “deep wounds". Despite concern from some quarters of the FA over his determination to draw closer to Argentina, Mujica said he would “keep the door open to all things Argentine, except coup-mongerers" (see sidebar).

Mujica was plunged into fresh controversy days later when the Uruguayan airline Pluna launched a promotional campaign featuring him. A photograph of Mujica with a speech bubble saying “Golden fares hit the mark: now you can fly to Buenos Aires for US$65 return" appeared as a colour page spread in Sunday editions of El Paí­s and La República. It was promoting special fares for over 65s. Mujica, who is 74, said Pluna had acted without his authorisation but that it was perfectly harmless as the company was merely exploiting his popularity.

The opposition demurred. It seized on Pluna's promotional campaign as a sign of the government twisting electoral laws ahead of the presidential and legislative elections in October. Pluna dropped the advertisements, but that Mujica should have appeared in any promotional campaign, let alone for cheap flights to Argentina, was potentially damaging for his credibility.

Astori attempted to take advantage of Mujica's gaffe by portraying himself as the safe pair of hands that the FA needs post-Vázquez. He is meeting with some success. The rump of the Partido Socialista (PS), decided to back his candidacy and drop its intention of backing the former industry minister, Daniel Martí­nez. Only a few months earlier Vázquez had quit the PS in protest after it refused to champion Astori, his chosen successor, and rallied behind Martí­nez.

The third man
The PS support for Astori means that little separates him from Mujica in the polls. The fear of an increasingly polarising campaign resulting in the loser becoming estranged and failing to back the victor in October's presidential elections, led the important Vertiente Artiguista faction of the FA to back a third candidate: Marcos Carámbula, the mayor of Canelones, the capital of the eponymous southern department. Various cabinet ministers and leaders of the Partido Comunista are also backing Carámbula.

Carámbula, 62, is, like Vázquez, a qualified doctor who has continued to practise medicine alongside politics. He is a former Communist-turned-independent member of the FA. He almost doubled the support received by Astori in the FA congress vote in December, but was seen as unlikely to appeal to the grassroots in June's primary elections.

• Mujica and Argentina
  José Mujica has long been pushing for a rapprochement with Argentina. He visited the Kirchners after President Vázquez vetoed Néstor Kirchner's candidacy for the presidency of the Union of South American Nations (Unasur) because of his support for protests against Uruguay's building of a pulp mill on the banks of the River Uruguay. Mujica, who said it was “a personal problem" of Vázquez, has also expressed an interest in employing Roberto Lavagna - a former Argentine economy minister - as his economic adviser if he were elected.

• Opposition rift
  The crumb of comfort for the ruling Frente Amplio is that the main opposition Blancos are far from a model of unity themselves heading into party primaries of their own in June. Former president Luis Alberto Lacalle is neck-and-neck with Jorge Larrañaga, who lost the last elections to Tabaré Vázquez, in the opinion polls. There is notable friction between the two men.