Brazil & Southern Cone - April 2009 (ISSN 1741-4431)

Faced with the very real possibility of defeat in mid-term congressional elections in October, President Cristina Fernández has brought the ballot forward by four months to 28 June. Fernández argued that the move would spare Argentina a lengthy electoral cycle at a time of global economic crisis. In truth, she is calculating, shrewdly, that earlier elections will work to the government's advantage and wrong-foot its opposition. The vote is now set to become a referendum on Fernández's administration, with her husband, predecessor and political strategist, Néstor Kirchner (2003-2007), poised to head the government's offensive in the crucial province of Buenos Aires.

The government rushed the change through congress in the space of 13 days. Ironically, its bill repeals “for a single time" a measure introduced in 2004 under Kirchner's watch, which fixed elections on the last Sunday of October in order to prevent the executive from using ballot dates to its political advantage. Fernández had little difficulty in securing support among legislators from the ruling Frente Para la Victoria (FPV), a faction of the Partido Justicialista (PJ, Peronists), and allied parties, who realise they are likely to stand a better chance at the polls in June than October; the date-change was passed by 136 votes to 109 in the lower house on 18 March, and 42 to 26 in the senate on 26 March.

Ulterior motive?
Fernández argued that a protracted “electoral marathon" would be “suicide" for Argentina as the country is experiencing what she termed “the worst year in the last century" as a result of the global economic slowdown. Her real motives are surely less public-spirited. First, the extent of the country's economic difficulties, which will hit the government's key support base - the lower-middle and working classes - hardest, will be less apparent in June than in October. Second, the surprise deadline will deprive the opposition of time to cement nascent alliances. As the Kirchners are well aware, the weak and fragmented opposition is one of the FPV's greatest strengths. The date-change is also likely to stem a recent tide of desertions from government benches [RSC-09-03], as the Peronist party closes ranks ahead of the vote.

Lastly, the move robs opposition parties of the chance to exact defeat on the government - and therefore gain political momentum - in a series of provincial elections in the run up to October. A week before Fernández announced the date-change, Kirchnerismo was defeated in provincial elections in Catamarca by an ally of the popular vice president and arch-enemy of the Kirchners, Julio Cobos. The 8 March ballot was the government's first electoral test this year, and the opposition and the media were quick to suggest that the defeat would be replicated on a national level in October.

High stakes
The government is gambling on maintaining its congressional majority in June, when some 53% of FPV seats in the lower house and 25% of its seats in the senate are up for renewal. The government may deliberately sell the vote as a referendum on Fernández's administration. If the FPV renews or builds on its majority in congress, the Kirchners will argue that the result gives the president - whose popularity has dived from 56% to 30% since she was elected in 2007 - a fresh mandate. It would also deal a notional defeat to the government's main challenger in recent months - the farming sector (see page 3).

If, on the other hand, the government loses, the Kirchners will face a bleak two 'lame duck' years ahead of presidential and legislative elections in 2010. Fernández would be likely, in such a case, to rely heavily on “decrees of necessity and urgency" (DNUs), which allow the president to bypass congress. It is worth noting that an opposition with teeth could, however, move to abolish DNUs entirely.  

After the lower house vote, the notorious Kirchnerista piquetero (street protest) leader, Emilio Pérsico, spoke plainly: “We are going to take our [political] project to the polls", adding dramatically, “If we do not have the support of the people, we will surrender the government, and may Cobos and Clarí­n [a leading opposition newspaper] govern instead". Although Kirchner subsequently disowned Pérsico's remarks, local media speculate that the former president's strategy is to engender just such an 'all of nothing' attitude to the vote in June. At a rally following the senate vote, Kirchner stressed that the elections would be crucial to guaranteeing “governability", his implication being that, should Fernández lose, the country would be thrown into chaos.      

The focus of the electoral battle will be the populous Buenos Aires province, the largest electoral district, whose lower-middle class population is the bedrock of government support and where the Peronist party enjoys a vast patronage network. Currently, the FPV controls 46% of the province's seats (32 of 69). If the government wishes to hold on to its majority in the lower house, it must repeat this success; of 61 FPV seats up for renewal nationwide, 20 of these are in the province of Buenos Aires.

It is increasingly likely that Kirchner himself will lead the FPV's list in the province, where his enduring political clout could well carry the party to victory. His main challenge will come from the centre-right dissident Peronist alliance, Unión Peronista [RSC-09-03], whose party list will be headed by millionaire businessman Francisco De Narváez (and not, as had been expected, the group's founder and presidential hopeful, Felipe Solá).

Santa Fe Peronists split
The Peronist party, of which the Kirchner's FPV is a faction, is set to field two rival candidate lists in Santa Fe. One will be headed by the leader of the Kirchnerista bloc in the lower house, Agustin Rossi; the other, by the popular Peronist senator and presidential hopeful Carlos Reutemann, who left the FPV along with fellow Santa Fe senator Roxana Latorre on 17 February to form the congressional bloc, Santa Fe Federal [RSC-09-03]. Reutemann is popular with the province's influential farming sector and refuses to share a list with Rossi, whose support for the government's agricultural export tax reforms last year antagonised the rural vote. The FPV controls 6 of 18 lower house seats in Santa Fe, the country's third largest electoral district. Three of these seats are due to be renewed in June. The government lost three of its deputies in February to Reutemann's bloc.

The path to elections_

• 28 April
  Deadline for sealing electoral alliances. Official campaigning will begin the following day.
• 9 May
  Deadline for submitting candidate lists.
• 27 May
  Candidates may launch their media campaigns. Until this date media advertising is prohibited.
• 28 June
  Mid term congressional elections to renew 127 seats in the lower house, and 24 in the senate. The city of Buenos Aires will hold elections to nominate 30 provincial legislators on the same day.