Brazil & Southern Cone - April 2009 (ISSN 1741-4431)

The ruling Frente Amplio (FA) is manoeuvring to put human rights centre stage in the campaign for October's legislative and presidential elections. The FA is moving on several fronts to overturn the amnesty law which shields the military from prosecution for human rights abuses committed during the dictatorship (1973-1985). This is a clear tactic to divert attention away from the upcoming months of deteriorating economic data. Real GDP economy, which grew 11.5% annually in 2008, is expected to slow to 2.5% at best this year, as demand for Uruguayan exports within Mercosur falls and Argentina erects import tariffs.

In early March, FA legislators used their majority in congress to declare the amnesty law, the Ley de Caducidad, unconstitutional. This is the first time that the FA has openly tried to abolish the amnesty law, although President Tabaré Vázquez has steadily chipped away at it since coming to power. The opposition boycotted the session on the grounds that the FA was committing “judicial fraud" in addition to defrauding the people who had already voted in favour of the amnesty in a referendum. The amnesty law was approved in 1986 and ratified via referendum (with 52% of the vote).

The vote in congress is non-binding but it is a clear signal of intent. It puts pressure on the supreme court, which must now decide whether to declare the amnesty law unconstitutional. The outcome of its ruling could prove academic though, as the FA is sponsoring another strategy to repeal the law. An assortment of ministers and trade unions close to the FA are supporting a campaign by NGOs and human rights groups to gather the 250,000 signatures required to petition for a referendum to abolish the law. They have already collected more than 80% of the total and aim to present the petition by mid April.

If the signature-target is reached, Uruguay will hold the referendum on the same day as the elections in October. It will also hold a separate referendum on whether to allow Uruguayan expatriates to vote in elections from 2014.

The FA is also preparing to present a bill to congress under which the state would assume the responsibility for human rights abuses committed during the dictatorship. This will entitle the victims of repression to receive compensation, both financial and in-kind.

Electioneering?
The opposition is accusing the FA of blatant electioneering. It is keen to prevent human rights from dominating the electoral agenda. Instead, it is angling to keep the economy at the heart of the campaign. Vázquez has presided over a strong economic recovery since the 2002 debacle: with high annual rates of growth (culminating in double-digit growth in 2008); foreign reserves of US$6.2bn last year, twice their pre-crisis level of US$3.1bn; and foreign investment up by a massive 25% year-on-year in 2008. But, Vázquez's decision to deliver an unorthodox public state-of-the-nation address in early March to extol these economic achievements was a sure sign that he is concerned the public could turn against the FA in the face of the present downturn.

Compounding problems for the FA is its highly divisive campaign ahead of internal party primary elections on 28 June. José Mujica, the more radical option, is the current favourite in the polls, but the centre-left former economy minister, Danilo Astori, is showing no compunction in attacking his rival's presidential credentials. Uniting the coalition after the primaries could be difficult.

• Security
  Security is a big issue dividing José Mujica and Danilo Astori. Mujica insists that it is a non-issue. He says that those who are so concerned should take a stroll in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Buenos Aires or Caracas. “Any yuppie can walk on the streets of Uruguay without problems as it is the safest country in Latin America," he said. Astori begs to differ. He claims insecurity is “an important problem" and is promising to establish a special security cabinet comprised of the interior, economy and social development ministries.