Brazil & Southern Cone - April 2009 (ISSN 1741-4431)

Although the slowdown is accelerating, the economy should still register some growth in 2009. The consensus is that real GDP growth will reach 1.5% annually in 2009, down from 8.9% in 2008. Interestingly, none of the independent analysts polled by the central bank expect the economy to contract in 2009.  Most expect the first quarter to be the most difficult. Further out, analysts remain cautious about 2010. The consensus is for real GDP growth of only 1.1% next year.

According to the central bank president, Mario Bergara, the country's GDP now stands at about US$32.2bn. Although Bergara said that last year's growth rate was exceptional. It was, in fact, slightly disappointing: independent analysts had expected a double digit result. The big problem was the final quarter when growth withered to just 0.8% year-on-year. Bergara argued that this was actually a success, as neighbouring economies contracted in the final quarter. By quarter, the GDP growth rates in 2008 were: 7.8%; 10.3%; 9.9% and 0.8%. The central bank also revised its annual GDP figures for 2006 and 2007 to 4.6% and 7.6% respectively.