Brazil & Southern Cone - October 2010 (ISSN 1741-4431)

If the opposition candidate José Serra managed to win the presidency on 31 October, he would take power as a minority government, with a weak hand in congress. He would immediately have to cut complex deals in order to govern. One obvious option would be to court the PMDB, which opportunistically blows with the prevailing political winds. In contrast, if Dilma Rousseff can hang on, and her overall result suggests she is still the favourite, she will be at the helm of an unprecedentedly strong administration, with key alliances already well established, as per President Lula da Silva's ambitions for his successor.

Looking at the overall breakdown, Rousseff is still on form ahead of the second round. She won in 18 states, with Serra taking eight and Marina Silva winning one, the federal district of Brasí­lia. As expected, Rousseff dominated in the traditional PT heartlands in the north and northeast, but also in much of the southeast, including in Minas Gerais. Even in São Paulo, Serra's home town, his victory over Rousseff was a narrow 40%-37%. On the other hand he won in Matto Grosso and Matto Grosso do Sul, which elected PMDB governors. He also won in Acre (Silva's home state). These complex results underline the messy and often parochial nature of Brazil's large federal state system.

The government coalition took 11 of the 27 state governor races, against eight for the opposition, and should add to this tally in the run-offs. The PT took four states in the first round, including Bahí­a and Rio Grande do Sul. The PMDB took another four, including the country's third largest electoral college Rio de Janeiro (where the incumbent Sergio Cabral romped home), the Matto Grossos and Maranhão. The PSDB's five states include the two most populous, São Paulo (Geraldo Alckmin) and Minas Gerais, with a surprise victory in Paraná.

According to preliminary estimates, the PT/PMDB-led coalition will take about 59 seats in the 81-seat senate in 2011, giving it a strong three fifths-plus majority, enough to approve consitutional reforms. The PSDB and its allies will have about 22 seats. The PT, which made notable gains (to 13 senators, up from eight) will challenge the PMDB for the senate presidency in 2011. The PV will lose its one senator, the PSDB lost three and the DEM 14. In congress, the PT/PMDB coalition will also boost its majority to an unprecedented 366 of the 513 seats in 2011 (or more), an enviable position that Lula never enjoyed. Notably, the PT will be the largest party in the lower house in 2011, with 88 deputies, followed by the PMDB on 80, down from 90 currently. Again, this will prompt the PT to jostle with the PMDB for stewardship of the congress. (see sidebars)

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The newly elected senator Aécio Neves (49), an expected presidential candidate in 2014, will be a key figure to watch. He scored a hat trick on 3 October - he was one of the second most popular canidate for the senate (winning 7.56m votes), his successor as state governor in Minas Gerais, Antonio Anastasia, was re-elected and Itamar Franco, of the allied Partido Popular Socialista, also won a senate seat for Minas. Neves is the clear front runner for the PSDB nomination in 2014. Anastasia declared of him after the vote, “He will be a great president, he has all the requisites of a statesman: political leadership, charisma, social awareness and managerial responsibility". To this he might have added Neves' good looks, always a vote winner. Neves's celebrations were marred, however, by the death in Belo Horizonte of his 83 year old father, Aécio Ferrerira da Cunha, on the night of the election.

São Paulo assembly falls to PT

Another rising star in the PSDB, Aloysio Nunes, was elected senator for São Paulo with 11.2m votes, well ahead of the the PT's elected senator Marta Suplicy. Its worth noting that despite the PSDB victories in São Paulo, the state assembly will likely be controlled by the PT, which could make life difficult for the PSDB governor-elect, Geraldo Alckmin. 

No laughing matter

Francisco Everardo Oliveira Silva, alias the clown 'Tiririca', won a seat in congress with an astonishing 1.3m votes, more than any other federal deputy. The 45-yr old Tiririca ran as a complete outsider, with slogans like: “Vote for Tiririca, things can't get worse than they already are"  and “I  haven't a clue what goes on in congress, but I'll tell you once I'm there".  He took 6.3% of the vote in São Paulo, Brazil's richest state, on a Partido da República ticket. Tiririca may not be able to take up his seat, as he is accused of being illiterate. An electoral judge is examing a claim that Tiririca forged his candidate registration. If found guilty, he could not only lose his new seat; the penalty for forging documents for electoral purposes is a fine and a five year jail sentence.