Brazil & Southern Cone - November 2010 (ISSN 1741-4431)

After unexpectedly getting through to the second round of the presidential race, Brazil's main opposition Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB) emerges from the 2010 campaign in better form than antipicated. It has retained substantial power at the state level, which will help compensate for a somewhat weaker position in parliament. Its main ally, Democratas (DEM), is battered but will also live to see another day. Meanwhile, the Partido Verde (PV), whose presidential candidate Marina Silva forced the run-off, hopes to capitalise on her unexpectedly strong showing to expand upon its 'third way' alternative for 2014, despite the PV having fared disappointingly overall in the general election.

The 2010 election results underline the fact that Brazil remains, to a large degree, politically divided along north-south (and income and education) lines. With a few exceptions, the PT still mostly dominates the lower income North and North East, while the PSDB is strongest in the wealthier and more developed South and South East. Overall, Dilma Rousseff will be able to count on the support of 16 of the 27 states (inclusive of the federal district) from 2011. The PT will directly govern five states, while its main coalition allies, the Partido do Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (PMDB) and the Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB) will govern four and six states respectively.

The PSDB will still control the rich South and South East, home to the populous industrial heartlands of the country and its largest two electoral districts - São Paulo and Minas Gerais. It has made much of the fact that it will have eight governors, more than any other party. Between them, these governors will manage states accounting for 55% of the Brazilian economy. Adding in the two DEM-governed states, the 10 opposition governors will administer some 52.3% of the Brazilian electorate (or 64.5m people).The defeated Serra described this as “a strategic victory" (see box for full list of state governors).

In parliament, where the PSDB will have a reduced 53 deputies (down from 59) and 11 senators (down from 16), it will look to the senator-elect and former state govenor of Minas Gerais, Aécio Neves, now the party's de facto leader, to take it forward. Although the defeated Serra declared that he was not saying goodbye but “see you later", it's clear that after two failed presidential bids his capacity to take the party forward is limited. The path now looks clear for Neves, Serra's main party rival, to take the reins. Neves, the PSDB's presumptive presidential nominee for 2014, immediately signalled that the party needed to clear out the dead wood, get its act together and step up so as not to allow the PT-led executive “to impose everything, as if this were a monarchy".

The PSDB has taken heart from the fact that Lula was ultimately unable to transfer his 83% approval rating to his chosen heir. Neves is confident that Dilma will quickly be exposed as a mere puppet of Lula's with no leadership skills or identity of her own and he is gearing up to make life difficult for her in parliament. In order for this new aggressive opposition strategy to work, however, the numerically inferior PSDB and its allies will need to hang together strongly - something they haven't always been good at in the past. However, on its assumption that Rousseff's presidency will be a disappointment, the opposition is newly optimistic for 2014.

GOVERNORS 2011

• The PV

Some in the PSDB have been floating the notion of an hook up between Neves and Marina Silva of the Partido Verde ahead of 2014. Serra tried - and failed - to woo Silva. Tactially, the PSDB would also need the likes of the PMDB to recover power.