Andean Group - 8 February 2005

The Unidad de Análisis de Polí­ticas Sociales y Económicas (Udape) forecast on 21 January that the economy would grow by 4% in 2005. Another business and economic commentator, the Cámara de Exportadores de La Paz, forecast that export revenues would be over US$2.5bn. The Udape reckons that growth in 2004 was better than expected because of the strength of the world economy. Udape admits that world growth this year is unlikely to match 2004's 5%, but nevertheless it is confident about Bolivia's prospects. Growth in 2004 was probably around the 4% mark, signalling an end to the four-year recession which had plagued the economy.

OUTLOOK

The Cámara de Exportadores de la Paz is equally bullish. It reckons that export revenues in 2005 would be up by at least 10% in 2005. According to Udape, exports came to US$2.073bn in 2004. The official figure, published on 25 January by INE, was US$2.16bn. This represents a 36% increase on 2003. The country's three main exports are hydrocarbons (principally gas) soya and timber.
Informal economy: The Udape said that the country's informal economy was the biggest in the world as a proportion of the total economy.
Inflation: Although the government is aiming for 3% inflation for the whole year prices rose by 1.37% in January.