Andean Group - 8 February 2005

The economy minister, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, said that the economy probably grew by 5% in 2004. Previously the government had claimed growth was 4.5%. The actual figure will be released on 15 February. Kuczynski said that the industrial sector is beginning to pick up. He noted that in 2004, the agricultural sector had a record year and the textile industry also did well. Exports were also strong, thanks to the surge in metal prices. They came to US$12.4bn. For a US$60bn economy that is quite a decent level. Mining exports were US$6.6bn, the economy ministry said, while agricultural and textile exports topped US$1.1bn.

OULOOK

The central bank held interest rates at 3.75% at its meeting on 3 February. Few analysts expect much change in rates any time soon. The economy recovery is leading to higher fiscal revenues: in January tax revenues were up by 9%, year-on-year at NS2.26bn (US$684m).
Inflation: The January inflation rate was 0.1%, bringing the 12-month inflation rate to 3.03%. Inflation in 2004 was 3.48%.
Fish exports: Fish exports in 2004 were up by 35% at US$1.39bn, the Comisión para la Promoción de Exportaciones reported. Fishmeal, at US$948m, accounted for the bulk of the exports, 28% up on 2003.