Andean Group - November 2006 (ISSN 1741-4466)

The results of the first round of Ecuador's presidential elections confounded the forecasts of pollsters. Rafael Correa, the radical leftwinger who wants to scrap congress in favour of a constituent assembly, end the US's lease on its airbase at Manta and renegotiate foreign oil companies' contracts, was narrowly beaten by Alvaro Noboa, a rightwing populist and one of the richest men in the country. From being the frontrunner, with some pollsters even suggesting the possibility of an outright victory in the first round, Correa is now languishing behind Noboa in the second, due on 26 November.

On hearing the news Correa immediately aired his suspicions of fraud, an accusation rejected by President Alfredo Palacio. Although polls had shown Noboa rising, Correa was still set to win by at least a five-point margin in the final, private polls. The campaign for the second round got underway shortly after the release of the first exit polls. In a brief, nasty spat on TV, Correa accused Noboa of using child labour on his banana plantations, an accusation previously levelled at him by the US. Noboa, in response, accused Correa of being a crypto-dictator who wanted to establish communism in Ecuador. 

Correa was not the only loser on 15 October. León Roldós, Cynthia Viteri and Ecuador's traditional political parties all fared badly as the electorate opted for populism over moderation (see box below). Roldós, a social democrat running for a coalition of his own Red Etica y Democrática and the Izquierda Democrática who was the favourite for several months prior to the election, won just under 15% of the vote, coming fourth behind Gilmer Gutiérrez, who is running effectively on behalf his brother Lucio, the president deposed in April 2005 and now deprived of his "political rights" for the next two years. Viteri had also been considered a strong contender, backed by the weight of the election machinery of the Partido Social Cristiano (PSC), the largest party going into the election. In the event, she failed to win even 10% of the vote and the PSC suffered significant losses in congress (see box below). 

The next round
With an estimated fortune of US$1.2bn from banana, coffee and banking interests, Noboa's brand of messianic populism helped him reach the second round in both 1998 and 2002 but never as the first-place candidate. The eye-catching features of his 2006 campaign, in which spent US$1m more than Correa, his closest rival in the spending stakes, include the handing out of computers, wheelchairs and bundles of cash while asserting his role as an "emissary of God" and scaring the electorate with apocalyptic forecasts of a totalitarian future under Correa. 

The real success of his campaign, however, appears to have been something much simpler: the promise of jobs. While Correa's message on the need for refounding the country's political institutions may have resonated with intellectuals and the far left, Noboa's emphasis on job creation and better healthcare proved much more popular. On 15 October Noboa beat Correa in the coast, urban and rural districts, whereas Correa won only in the Andean highlands and the sparsely populated Oriente and Amazonian provinces.

For the second round, Noboa has entered into a pact with the Gutiérrez brothers' PSP, which will become the second-largest party in congress in January. The PSP's support, however, was conditional on Noboa committing himself to investigate and prosecute those involved in the toppling of Lucio in April 2005. While Gutiérrez is seeking revenge against his former vice-president, now the actual president, Alfredo Palacio, Noboa is after Correa, who served as Palacio's first economy minister. If the PSP-Prian pact holds (an unlikely scenario, given Ecuador's history of political alliances), it will be just three votes short of a majority in congress next year.

For the election at least, Noboa can also count on the backing of the PSC. The Partido Roldosista Ecuatoriano, another significant political force, may have a free vote; many of its members would be expected to back Noboa, who served in the PRE government of Abdalá Bucaram. Those parties are particularly strong on the coast; Correa's support comes from the highland parties. Despite vowing not to compromise, and refusing to promise any jobs in return for support, Correa has received the backing of the Izquierda Democrática-Red Etica y Democrática (though not that of the coalition's presidential candidate, León Roldós); the indigenous party, Pachakutik, and the far-left Movimiento Popular Democrático. 

Polls for the second round
On 4 November the Quito-based daily El Comercio published four opinion polls which showed Alvaro Noboa significantly ahead of Rafael Correa in voter intentions for the second round of the presidential elections due on 26 November. The poll published by Consultar, carried out on 28-29 October, found that 50% of respondents would vote for Noboa; 28% for Correa. Null and blank votes would account for 19%, while 3% did not know who they would support. A Cedatos poll, of 5,062 people, put Noboa on 49%, followed by Correa on 33%. A Market poll put Noboa on 49% and Correa on 30%; while a poll by Informe Confidencial put Noboa on 47% and Correa on 32%.

Correa's party, Alianza PAíS, did not field any congressional candidates, meaning that if he does not win the second round he will have a significant power base, but no democratic outlet. Given his suspicions the first round was tainted by fraud, despite a lack of evidence, Correa may not accept defeat easily. By contrast, Noboa, should he lose, is still likely to have a sizeable stake in congress and will certainly attempt to thwart Correa's plans for a constituent assembly. As regards what the election means for Ecuador's future, it is worth noting the thoughts of Roldós, who if nothing else is an experienced political operator in Ecuador. Prior to the election he said that a Correa or Noboa government would not last 90 days.