Andean Group - November 2006 (ISSN 1741-4466)

Things are looking good for President Alan Garcí­a; according to an opinion poll conducted by Apoyo, which puts his October approval rating at a healthy 57%, Peruvians from Tumbes to Tacna think that he is doing a good job. However, he faces a real test of his popularity in the regional elections on 19 November.

Up for grabs are 195 provincial mayoralties, 23 regional presidencies and the prestigious mayoralty of Lima. Although Garcí­a's Apra party won 12 of the 25 regional presidencies in 2002, his rival candidate for the presidency, Ollanta Humala, got the most votes in 15 of the 25 regions in this year's presidential elections.

The regional balloting will be a good gauge of whether the president is succeeding in a delicate balancing act, that of appeasing people on all sides of the deep ethnic and socio-economic divisions in Peruvian society. Garcí­a's victory in the presidential run-off was generally attributed to him gaining the support of "anyone-but-Humala" middle-class voters in Lima and the coast, but according to the recent poll by Apoyo he has managed to retain this support. His approval rating in Lima is at 62%, and at 63% in the Costa Norte.

Humala's troubles

In areas where support for Humala was strong during the presidential elections, approval ratings for Garcí­a are still markedly lower, at 47% in the poor southern Andean region and 48% in the Amazonian provinces. However, this time around Humala faces challenges even in previous strongholds and Apra has a chance of making some gains in these areas. The charges brought against Humala for murder and kidnapping in August have significantly dented his support base and with a trial pending it is unlikely that he will be allowed to travel widely outside Lima to boost the campaigns of his candidates. 

The Unión Por el Perú (UPP), which formed a coalition with Humala's Partido Nacionalista Peruano (PNP) in the presidential elections, will put forward its own candidates in the regional elections. To counteract the abandonment of the UPP-PNP coalition by many legislators who got into congress on the back of his success in the first round of the presidential elections, Humala has formed a new political alliance called the Gran Alianza Nacionalista Peruana-Gana Perú which brings together all the regional movements that supported his candidacy, many of which won regional presidencies in 2002 (see table below). 

However, the president of the UPP, Aldo Estrada, has warned that this could actually lessen his support, as up to 10 legislators from the PNP have threatened to leave and join the UPP over disagreements about the formation of Gana Perú. 

Apra marks out its battleground

Garcí­a is making a concerted effort to focus on the regions where, despite Apra holding regional presidencies, support for him was disappointingly low in the presidential elections. Apra's secretary general, Mauricio Mulder, said that in regions where the party performed poorly its grassroots organisation faced a comprehensive overhaul. This includes the purging of regional leaders who, in Mulder's words, "unfortunately are not up to the job of campaigning or being in the governing party." The regions which are being targeted include Arequipa, Cajamarca, Loreto and Ayacucho. 

Perhaps Garcí­a's keenness to win support in these regions goes some way to explaining his decision to send a bill to congress asking for the death penalty for terrorists. Ayacucho is the region where the Sendero Luminoso was formed and its population was severely affected by their actions. The recent trials of leaders of the terrorist organisation has brought the issue back into public consciousness. Many people complained that some of the punishments meted out were too lenient, and Garcí­a's hard line is sure to be a vote-winner in his target provinces.