Andean Group - December 2006 (ISSN 1741-4466)

After the long build-up to the presidential election, and the fears of fraud or violence, the result was as clear and uneventful as it was predictable: President Hugo Chávez won re-election by a margin of at least 20 points. For the government, the result signals an unambiguous mandate to accelerate the pace of the Bolivarian Revolution; for the opposition it means at least five more years in the political wilderness, with no representation in the legislature and no influence on the executive. Hugo Chávez has now been re-elected for the fourth time, more than any other president in Venezuela's history.

The result
At around 10pm local time on 3 December Tibisay Lucena, the president of the CNE, announced that with 78.31% of the ballots counted, Chávez had won 61.35% of the vote, or 5.9m votes, while the main opposition candidate Manuel Rosales had won 38.39%, or 3.7m votes. Around 25% of the 15.9m Venezuelans eligible to vote abstained, a figure much lower than expected. After the CNE announcement Rosales conceded defeat, although he claimed Chávez 's margin of victory was much narrower. "We admit that they defeated us today, but we will remain in the battle on the street," he said. "This is not the time to surrender."  

Just as he did after his victory in the 2004 recall referendum, Chávez appeared on the "People's Balcony" of Miraflores, the presidential palace, to celebrate. "Long live the socialist revolution, its destiny was pre-ordained," he said. "Let no one be afraid of socialism_socialism is humane, socialism is love." He dedicated his victory to Cuba's ailing President Fidel Castro, who was too ill to attend a military parade in his honour in Havana on 2 December. "Another defeat for the North American empire. Another defeat for Mr Danger [US President George W. Bush]. Down with imperialism," he said.

What will Chávez do next?
Chávez has given few definite indications as to the shape of his new government, other than to emphasise the "deepening and strengthening" of the revolution. With such a convincing level of support, the president will not feel obliged to offer much restraint in the exercise of his power. Since the opposition boycotted the legislative elections in 2005, due ostensibly to concerns over election fraud, there are no anti-government politicians in congress to provide at least some of the checks and balances normally associated with a legitimate democracy. The judiciary also offers scant resistance to Chávez 's rule: in May 2004, the president passed legislation expanding Venezuela's supreme court from 20 to 32, and subsequently stacked it with magistrates loyal to the Bolivarian Revolution.

One concrete proposal Chávez put forward prior to the election is the changing of the constitution to allow indefinite re-election, and 2021, rather than the current limit of 2012, appears to be the earliest date he might consider stepping down. Another issue which appears to preoccupy the president is the slow pace of land reform in the country. In August 2005 Chávez announced a "war on the latifundios" (large land estates) and threatened to expropriate land the government deemed to be lying idle. Characteristically, he later came to a deal with many landowners, but the threat of expropriation was enough to secure a good price.

The president followed a similar tactic ahead of the election. While promising an acceleration in the pace of reform to his core supporters, he also sought to allay opposition fears by restating his respect for private property. There are signs, however, that this policy of double-speak may cause rifts within the government, particularly now that the need for unity is much less urgent. An indicator of what might come was the public spat, in late August 2006, between the mayor of Caracas, Juan Barreto, and the vice-president José Vicente Rangel. Both high profile Chavistas, Barreto was incensed by Rangel after the vice-president gave the mayor a public dressing down for threatening to expropriate two golf courses in the city to turn the space over to cheap public housing. Chávez , conveniently, was out of the country at the time.  

Uncertainty surrounding what exactly the "deepening" of the Bolivarian Revolution will involve has helped generate a spending boom over the past few months. With growth this year of at around 9%, Venezuelans are spending excessively and saving or investing little. According to a survey conducted in October, despite strong sales in the commercial sector, retailers have not been looking to expand their businesses for fear of a sudden change in the economic climate following the election.

What will the opposition do next?
As Rosales was conceding defeat, a number of those in the crowd gathered round the opposition candidate shouted "traitor". When he started campaigning in August as the opposition's main candidate, he was polling under 10% so to manage 38% was a real achievement. Rosales galvanised a fragmented and disillusioned opposition, many of whom would not have voted but for his skilful campaign, which sought to balance criticism of the government with positive (and even populist) proposals for government. This opposition also had to fight against the massive advantages the government had in terms of campaign propaganda: Súmate, the anti-Chávez citizens' rights group, claimed that for every second of air time given over to Rosales on the country's five most-watched TV stations, Chávez and the government had 21.

Nevertheless, Rosales lost. Nobody within Rosales's camp is attempting to explain away the election result as fraud. Two weeks ahead of the election Rafael Poleo, the editor of the Caracas daily El Nuevo Paí­s, called on opposition supporters to prepare for protest action ahead of what was bound to be a fraudulent result, along the lines of the Orange Revolution in Ukraine which succeeded in forcing the government out of office. So far, no one looks like heeding Poleo's call.

The real test for Rosales's political skill starts now. In his speech conceding defeat, he promised to continue leading the opposition to ensure the government rules for all Venezuelans, and restated his commitment to put pressure on the government to redistribute more of the country's oil wealth. However, it is doubtful he will be able to keep the loose-knit opposition together. A former deputy of the social-democratic party Acción Democrática, which along with the centre-right COPEI ruled Venezuela for 40 years prior to Chávez 's arrival, Rosales benefited from the votes of the "anyone-but-Chávez " demographic, but having failed to defeat the president he may struggle to keep the opposition's various political philosophies united.

The opposition will now have virtually no political representation; legislative elections are not for another five years, and the presidential elections not for another six. However, elected officials are eligible to be recalled via referendum after two years in office. The opposition may try to force referenda on unpopular Chavista governors (20 of the country's 22 governors are loyal to the government), in an attempt to gain at least some sort of foothold in the political process.  

Although some members of the opposition may be tempted to resort to protest action or even violence to unseat the government, the size of Chávez 's victory will discourage all but the most radical of the opposition. Speaking on the morning of 4 December, Monseñor Ovidio Pérez, the president of the Episcopal Conference of Venezuela, sought to calm those bitterly disappointed by the thought of another six years of Chávez . "Venezuela has not yet arrived at the apocalypse. The country will continue to go forward. History has not yet finished," he said.