Andean Group - December 2006 (ISSN 1741-4466)

Tension between the government and the opposition, always simmering, is coming to the boil. There are three core issues at stake: the power of the prefects (governors) vis-í -vis the central government; voting procedures in the constituent assembly; and land reform, which we deal with separately on page 9). Things are unlikely to get out of hand, as Bolivia tends to muddle through, but the run-up to the end of 2006 could shape the rest of the mandate of President Evo Morales.

The conflict between the central government and the departmental prefects representing the opposition (six out of nine) is all about power. The government wants congress to have the power to monitor, censure and dismiss prefects; the prefects claim they were elected separately and should not have to be held accountable to the government for their actions. 

The bone of contention is a bill, designed by Fabián Yaksic, the deputy minister of decentralisation, which would empower congress to summon prefects to face questions and remove them from their post. Yaksic argues that the new bill is rendered necessary by the fact that departmental revenues are set to soar over the next few years due to increased revenues from gas exports under the new hydrocarbons law. 

He said that they will increase to Bols$8bn (US$1bn) in 2007, from Bols$5.9bn this year and Bols$3bn in 2004. Yaksic explained, for instance, that Tarija's earnings had quadrupled in the space of two years from Bols$676m (US$84m) in 2004 to Bols$2.4bn (US$300m) in 2006. 

Power clash
The opposition claims that the government is merely seeking to assert its hegemony over the regions. The president of the Confederación de Empresarios Privados de Bolivia, Roberto Mustafá, warned that the decision to "hold them (the prefects) hostage" ignored the fact that the people voted for them in democratic elections on 18 December 2005 and could lead to confrontation and, ultimately, the fragmentation of Bolivia as the prefects provided the only resistance to the growing power of the ruling Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS). It is not unusual, it is worth noting, for the opposition to conjure up such apocalyptic visions of Bolivia's future whenever it feels that the government is trying to curb its powers.

José Luis Paredes, the opposition prefect of La Paz, responded to Yaksic's bill by presenting one of his own: the censure of the president. If Paredes's proposal were adopted five prefects would be able to censure the president and compel him to resign. This reduces the government's proposal to the absurd and will clearly gain no headway in the lower chamber where the MAS enjoys a solid majority. 

The opposition prefects held an eight-hour meeting in Cochabamba on 27 November to define their strategy for tackling the government. Before the meeting Paredes called for the formation of a "comité de defensa de la democracia" to act as a counterweight to the government. He said this would include people from "civil society". In practice this would mean opposition politicians, landowners and businessmen from the prosperous east of the country.

Unsurprisingly, the three MAS prefects, of Oruro (Luis Aguilar), Potosí­ (Mario Virreina) and Chuquisaca (David Sánchez), said they had no concerns whatsoever about being censured and urged their peers to share their attitude. Morales said the prefects did not want to be controlled, "assuredly because they are stealing". 

Defining moment for constituent assembly
At the same time as the dispute between the prefects and the government was evolving, the constituent assembly was reaching the most momentous decision since it convened on 6 August. The MAS managed to push through a vote in the constituent assembly on 17 November under which only a simple, not a two-thirds, majority would be needed to approve individual clauses in the new text of the constitution. This means that the opposition in the assembly will effectively be sidelined until the vote on the final text which would then require a two-thirds majority.

The opposition Unidad Nacional (UN) joined its leader, the cement magnate Samuel Doria Medina, in going on a hunger strike to protest against the MAS vote on voting procedures. The UN was joined by the influential (but unelected) Comités Cí­vicos for three of the four Media Luna departments of Santa Cruz, Beni and Pando. 

The leader of the Comité Pro Santa Cruz, Germán Antelo, invited cruceños to go on hunger strike in defence of democracy on 23 November, while the president of the Comité Cí­vico del Beni, Alberto Melgar, declared a state of emergency. Melgar said that Beni would hold a referendum on whether to accept the conclusions of the constituent assembly after the "totalitarian and anti-democratic" MAS vote. But the signs are that in the constituent assembly, like the senate, the opposition is being outmanoeuvred. On 28 November 10 opposition or independent constituent assembly members defected to the government. More could follow suit.

The nine prefects
The nine prefects were elected on 18 December 2005. Six belong to opposition parties and three to the ruling Movimiento al Socialismo:

• Chuquisaca - David Sanchez (MAS)
• Oruro - Luis Alberto Aguilar (MAS)
• Potosí­ - Mario Virreira (MAS)
• Beni - Ernesto Suarez (Podemos)
• Cochabamba - Manfred Reyes Villa (AUN)*
• La Paz - José Luis
• Paredes (Podemos)
• Pando - Leopoldo Fernández (Podemos)
• Santa Cruz - Rubén Costa (APB)**
• Tarija - Mario Cossí­o (CC)***

*Alianza de Unidad Nacional
**Autonomí­a Para Bolivia
***Camino al Cambio