Andean Group - February 2008 (ISSN 1741-4466)

The Ecuadorean government in general and the defence ministry in particular are responding to the more nuanced US policy to the Andean group of countries. President Correa and his colleagues are doing this partly to neutralise criticism from rightwing politicians that Correa is another President Hugo Chávez and partly to ensure that the country retains its trade privileges with the US.

The first sign of President Correa's determination to emphasise his differences with Chávez came on 13 January when Correa became one of the first regional leaders to dismiss Chávez 's controversial call for the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc) to be treated as a proper army rather than a criminal terrorist group. Correa criticised the Farc for its policy of kidnapping, arguing that this criminal habit destroyed any claim the organisation had to belligerent status.

The second sign was the success of the visit to Washington by the defence minister, Wellington Sandoval, at the end of January. The defence ministry highlighted the fact that the US had praised Ecuador's anti-drugs efforts during Sandoval's visit on 25 January. Few other countries in the region care how the US views their anti-drugs efforts. Indeed, Chávez and leftwingers such as President Evo Morales of Bolivia almost relish the strident US criticism of their anti-drugs efforts, largely because the US claims are often contradicted by data from the UN's Office on Drugs and Crime.

The praise for Ecuador's anti-drugs effort came from Robert Gates, the US Defense Secretary. Sandoval attributed Ecuador's success to the fact that it neither refines nor grows drugs. Sandoval noted that in the past couple of years Ecuador has seized 35t of drugs.

Sandoval also discussed with Gates and Christy McCampell, the assistant secretary in the international narcotics department at the State Department, the way Ecuador is policing its border with Colombia. Sandoval called this Plan Ecuador and implied that, rather than military force, it depended on "soft force", such as cross-border partnerships and economic development, to achieve its objectives.

Sandoval gave more details about Plan Ecuador at a meeting of the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies. Here he drew sharper contrasts between the Plan Ecuador and the US-backed Plan Colombia, which funds the Colombian government's offensives against the Farc and other drug gangs.

The US government appeared to listen politely to Sandoval's Plan Ecuador but did not come up with any extra money. In President George W Bush's final state of the union address on 28 January, there was a ringing endorsement of the policies of President Álvaro Uribe, who uses the army to deal with the Farc.

Sandoval's cordial reception in the US, however, reinforces the consensus that US foreign policy in the region has become less confrontational since a career diplomat, Thomas Shannon, took over as assistant secretary of state for western hemisphere affairs in 2005. The US's key interest in Ecuador is its lease on the Manta airbase, which expires in 2009. The US uses the base for anti-drugs operations. President Correa has said repeatedly that the lease will not be renewed.

The warmth of Sandoval's welcome in Washington, and the fact that the US government has not ruled out the idea of extending the Andean Trade Preference Drug Eradication Act (Atpdea), which is due to expire at the end of this February, suggests that a deal may be done. If the Democrat-controlled US Congress blocks the free trade agreement with Colombia again, President Bush said in his state of the union speech that he will immediately resubmit it to Congress. If this happens, an extension of the Atpdea will be inevitable in order to avoid penalising Colombia. Ecuador and Bolivia currently benefit from Atpdea.

Correa might also be tempted to make a concession on the extension of the Manta lease, if only to put even more distance between himself and Chávez for domestic political reasons. Correa is under pressure to do that because of a clever campaign by the Right. Rightwing opponents are picking off various elements in President Correa's plans for 21st Century socialism and a citizens' revolution, rather than simply opposing everything en masse.

The new subtlety of the opposition appears to be paying off with the voters. A new opinion poll by Cedatos found that Correa, who has been outspoken about the "oligarchs" (a term of abuse also increasingly used by Chávez to demonise the right-wing opposition) is losing support. The poll found that 72% of the population wanted Correa to tone down his radical rhetoric.