Andean Group - March 2008 (ISSN 1741-4466)

After another month of stalled talks and failed truces, the government moved one tentative step closer towards approving the new constitution when congress approved legislation setting 4 May as the date for two referenda. The new laws - which also rendered illegal plans underway in the opposition eastern regions of Santa Cruz, Tarija, Pando, Beni, Cochabamba and Chuquisaca to hold their own regional referenda on the issue of autonomy - has inevitably met with resistance from the prefects.

Temporary truce

After a revival of hostilities at the end of January between the government and opposition prefects after the government's implementation of its pension plan [RA-08-02] both sides declared a "truce" two weeks later in light of the flood crisis caused by the La Niña weather phenomenon. The floods, which have left 67 people dead and displaced 74,000 families since last November prompted President Evo Morales to declare a national disaster on 12 February and urge both parties to "prioritise national over regional or individual interests".

However, the "truce" proved untenable after the so-called national democratic council (Conalde, an entity formed by the opposition prefects) presented Morales with an ultimatum. This comprised a list of demands which went far beyond the three topics flagged up for discussion in the previous month of dialogue - namely the new constitution, the government's pension plan which involved using profits from the direct hydrocarbons tax (IDH) and the prefects' bid for autonomy.

The demands presented by Conalde on this occasion included: rejecting the use of IDH funds to pay for pensions; the election of a new regional prefect in Sucre, the capital of Chuquisaca; and official recognition of the autonomy referendum proposals of Santa Cruz and three other regions - proposals which would grant so much power to the prefects that even the opposition party, Podemos, had been openly sceptical of them.

The prefects also demanded that the constituent assembly process be taken back to 15 August, the day the issue of the country's capital was struck off the constituent assembly's agenda [RA-07-09]. Chuquisaca continues to demand that Sucre be made the national capital and wants a national referendum to decide the location of the legislative and executive branches, an issue omitted by the draft constitution.

Congress sets dates

In light of Conalde's demands, which would have been almost impossible for the government to accept, the idea of referenda to determine these contentious issues fast emerged as the only way out of the crisis.

On 25 February presidential spokesperson Alex Contreras announced that congress would discuss plebiscites on the issues of autonomy and the new constitution, while also up for discussion was a referendum on whether land ownership should be capped at 5,000 or 10,000 hectares. The provision had failed to garner the two-thirds vote in the constituent assembly, hence the need for a separate vote.

Three days later, in a joint session of both houses of congress, a proposal was approved by a two thirds majority of those present which called for two national referendums to take place on 4 May - one on the draft constitution and the other on land reform.

As well as setting the date for the two plebiscites, congress also voted that only the legislature (comprising the MAS-led lower chamber and opposition-led senate) was authorised to call regional plebiscites. If this view is upheld by the supreme court, the plans underway in the opposition regions to hold their own regional referenda on the issue of autonomy will become illegal.

Prefects respond

As was the case with the approval of the draft constitution [RA-08-01], the opposition and prefects protested the manner in which the legislation was passed. Many opposition legislators were reportedly blocked from entering the congressional building by flag-waving supporters of Morales and miners in hardhats. Meanwhile the proposal itself was reportedly approved in under an hour with almost no formal debate.

The opposition prefects - who reject the four levels of autonomy outlined in the draft constitution (departmental, provincial, municipal and indigenous) - then announced their refusal to recognise the new legislation and their plans to press ahead with regional autonomy votes. This effectively represents a boycott of the institutional process and signals increasing polarization within the country.

Santa Cruz and Beni have already set 4 May and 1 June respectively as dates for plebiscites while Pando, Chuquisaca, Tarija and La Paz are currently discussing plans. The situation in La Paz is a significant blow for Morales; La Paz prefect José Luis Paredes had been independent - neither pro-Morales nor pro-opposition - but has become increasingly critical of the federal government, accusing it of neglecting his region and failing to provide the necessary resources to develop infrastructure. Unlike Santa Cruz and Beni, La Paz voted overwhelmingly (73.4%) against autonomy in a referendum on the issue in July 2006.

So far Morales - who has cancelled all his trips abroad in the immediate future in order to concentrate on the crisis - continues to promote the idea of dialogue with the prefects; two days after the congressional sessions he offered to "correct" the draft of the new Magna Carta to incorporate their autonomy demands. Vce-President Álvaro Garcí­a Linera meanwhile expressed hopes that the opposition prefects would "change their attitudes".

• CEPB deals blow to pro-autonomists

On 28 February Gabriel Dabdoub, the newly elected president of Bolivia's private entrepreneurs confederation (CEPB, which represents virtually all the country's private sector organisations), declared that regional autonomy statutes had to be in line with the new constitution. Dabdoub, a businessman from Santa Cruz who is an opponent of President Evo Morales, said that "one doesn't function without the other; an autonomy statute needs a political constitution".

• Iran

The US has also expressed concern over increasing cooperation between Iran and Bolivia. This was most recently evinced in an offer by Iran to fund a new TV station to be based in the rural, coca-growing region of Chapare. The two countries established ties last September and at the time, President Evo Morales and his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad signed accords amounting to US$1,100m pertaining to the hydrocarbons, energy, agriculture and industry sectors.