Andean Group - August 2009 (ISSN 1741-4466)

The main opposition candidates began launching their campaigns for the presidency in early August. They have to be registered by 7 September.

President Evo Morales, who remains more than 30 percentage points ahead of his closest rival, was more preoccupied with seeking to prevent a deal with Chile over the Silala River becoming an electoral issue.

A former president and leader of the main opposition alliance Podemos, Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga (2001-2002) announced his candidacy on 10 August. He will run as a Podemos-PDC (Partido Demócrata Cristiano) candidate. Podemos, which was forced to seek the alliance with the PDC in January to receive legal status following an unfavourable ruling by the national electoral court last year, remains seriously weakened after the departure of the senate president, Oscar Ortiz, and his Santa Cruz allies last month. 

On 11 August one of the country's richest businessmen, Samuel Doria Medina, a cement magnate, launched his campaign. Doria Medina is Morales's closest rival in the polls, and president of the second largest party, Unidad Nacional, which has also seen splits in recent weeks. Under the slogan “putting Bolivia to work", Medina's manifesto is based on “economic development" and job creation for “all Bolivians".

Also on 11 August, Ví­ctor Hugo Cárdenas, a former vice-president in the first government of the now exiled right-winger, Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada (1993-1997), reiterated his intention to run for the presidency. Cárdenas was among the first of Morales's opponents to announce his presidential ambitions, back in March. However, with Santa Cruz his support base, his prospects have been adversely affected by the announcement both of Ortiz's new political outfit, Consenso Popular, and the candidacy of Germán Antelo, a Santa Cruz civic leader chosen as the candidate for Sánchez de Lozada's former party, Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (MNR). Cárdenas has yet to announce on which ticket he will run. By law, candidates require the endorsement of a legally recognised party or movement in order to register.

The most recent national survey by Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado put Morales at 45% (a conservative estimate given that it polled only urban dwellers and Morales counts on the rural population for much of his support); Doria Medina on 11%; Quiroga on 7%; and Cárdenas on 6%. The other main contender is the former prefect of Cochabamba, Manfred Reyes Villa (8%).

As the economy is doing pretty well with growth likely to be around 4% this year and central bank reserves currently equivalent to 80% of GDP, the opposition sense that attacking Morales for comprising either on Bolivia's sovereignty or discouraging foreign investment is its best option.

One odd issue is Bolivia's agreement with Chile over the Silala River. The deal established that Bolivia owns at least 50% of the river - which rises in Bolivia but is used as a water source by Chilean-based mines - with the remainder to be subject to a four-year study. Morales's opponents do not see this compromise as equitable.

Another odd election issue is how to develop the lithium deposits in the Salar de Uyuni. The government wants to develop the lithium to produce at least batteries for electric cars or even perhaps the cars themselves. It believes that the project will cost at least US$800m to develop. As the central bank is sitting n over US$8bn in reserves, the country actually has the money to buy the technology it needs.

• Miss Peru

Relations with Peru have yet to recover from the acrimonious exchanges which ensued in the aftermath of the Bagua violence in June  despite the return of Peru's ambassador Fernando Rojas at the end of July. The latest spat has the unlikely backdrop of the Miss Universe contest: the Bolivians are considering filing an appeal against Peru before international courts over the use of Miss Peru's national costume “la Diablada" which, the Morales government argues, is copied from Bolivian folklore.

• Remittances

Remittances in the first six months of 2009 fell by 8.4%, year-on-year to US$486m.

• Gas revenues

In the first five months of 2009 the country's hydrocarbon tax revenues fell by 15%, year-on-year to US$209m. Revenues from the Impuesto Especial a los Hidrocarburos y sus Derivados fell from US$94m to US$25m while revenues from the Impuesto Directo a los Hidrocarburos rose from US$76m in the first five months on 2008 to US$89m in the same period of 2009. Hydrocarbon exports fell by 26% in the first five months of 2009 to US$862m.