Andean Group - March 2011 (ISSN 1741-4466)

The clash for congress ahead of the 10 April general election has begun in earnest, with 1,690 candidates, grouped in 13 different electoral alliances, competing for an enlarged 130-seat unicameral congress (up from 120).   Peru's governability over the next five years will be dictated by the nature of the political split between the executive and the congress. An outright majority in the legislature will be difficult to achieve in the elections and nigh on impossible to maintain.

Public trust in congress has hit record lows in Peru. According to a national poll published on 28 February by Ipsos Apoyo, public disapproval of the legislature was a whopping 82%, while its approval rating was just 11%, down from 14% in January. This is echoed by other independent researchers such the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP), based at Vanderbilt University.

The campaigns
The election campaign, now in its final month, has been inimical to congress' credibility. Both the JNE and the political parties themselves have had to forcibly remove candidates from congressional lists, in some cases for past misdemeanours; in others because of problems with submitted documentation.

Pepe Vásquez, a 'criollo' singer and a former candidate for Fuerza 2011, the outfit of presidential candidate Keiko Fujimori, is a case in point.   Vásquez was removed by the JNE on 9 February for an infraction of the electoral rules. Originally planning to run on a ticket for Acción Popular (AP), he switched following that party's alliance with Alianza Perú Posible, lead by the former president and leading contender in this year's presidential race, Alejandro Toledo (2001-2006). Under Article 5 of the electoral law, candidates wishing to switch party officially must do so five months before the submission of congressional lists. Vásquez jumped ship on 19 January. (Vásquez is notorious for his for his alleged narco-trafficking links. On 16 February the anti-drugs officer of the public prosecutor's office, Sonia Medina, ordered a warrant for his arrest. He was not arrested after the public ministry intervened. Vásquez was due to present his defence before a Lima court but was subsequently admitted to hospital suffering from 'exhaustion'.)

On 15 February President Alan Garcí­a's ruling Partido Aprista Peruano (PAP) had 11 candidates pulled from its Lima list. The PAP was already in a bad way, having previously lost its presidential candidate, Mercedes Araóz, in a damaging internal fight that threatened to split the party. The 11 included the party sub-secretary, Javier Morán Morán, who was disqualified for continuing to receiving a public salary beyond the deadline for which public officials intending to run for office must leave their posts. The PAP's only glimmer of hope had been the congressional elections. All is not lost for Alan Garcí­a, who though not eligible to run this year has already made public his interest in running again (for a third term) in 2016. Garcí­a remains in a strong position in the PAP as the only one apparently capable of holding together the internal party factions. Local political commentators have dubbed this the rise of 'Alanismo' over Aprismo in the PAP.

Ollanta Humala, the presidential candidate for the left-wing Partido Nacionalista Peruano (PNP), on 3 February booted off the PNP list two of the few outgoing congressionals keen on re-election, Elsa Malpartida and Nancy Obregón. They were removed amid ongoing investigations into their alleged links to nacro-traffickers and money laundering. Humala has stolen a march on his right-wing rival Keiko Fujimori by adopting an even tougher stance on security than her, a tactic that seems be paying poll dividends. In the latest Ipsos Apoyo poll , Humala, rather unexpectedly,   scored highest in three security-related policy categories: counter-narcotics, anti-corruption and crime fighting, successfully re-branding himself as the “security" candidate.   The removal of the two from the PNP list was part of that 're-branding' effort.

 JNE under scrutiny
With six weeks to go until polling day, delays in publishing the complete congressional lists for each department have undermined the JNE's credibility yet again, only months after it came under heavy criticism following very lengthy delays in finalising the count for the October 2010 regional elections. Thirteen political parties submitted their lists by the 10 February deadline; however the process of checking and approving the lists at source by the JNE's regional sub-offices is still ongoing. Though the JNE published the names of 1,690 candidates on 24 February, many regions have yet to receive the approved lists. In Arequipa, for instance, of 13 lists submitted, comprising 78 candidates, only 24 candidates had been formalised in early March. In Huamanga, there were only 29 official candidates in early March, from lists submitted by 10 political parties.   The delay is partially due to the fact that most candidates are running for the first time and so are new to the system. According to one JNE official, these candidates, and their parties, lack know how, with applications arriving late, forms not correctly filled in, documentation missing etc, making the JNE's job all the more difficult to complete.

Outlook
In early March, 13 parties were in the running   for congress: Fuerza 2011, Alianza por el Gran Cambio, Solidaridad Nacional, Alianza Perú Posible, Cambio Radical,   Fuerza Social, Fonavistas del Peru, Adelante,   Fuerza Nacional, Alianza Gana Perú, Despertar Nacional, Partido Aprista Peruano and Justicia, Tecnologí­a, Ecologí­a (Juste) party.

The Peruvian congress has an incredibly high turnover and very low return-for-re-election rate. In 1995, 67% of all those elected were congressional novices. In 2000, this rose to 71% and in 2006 it hit a record 82%. Whilst new faces mean renovation, Fernando Tuesta, a former head of the Oficina de Procesos Electorales (ONPE) and head of the Centre for Public Ppinion at the Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú (PUCP), argues that it is like creating a new institution from scratch every election. And the dearth of strong or established political parties (bar the PAP) means that congress lacks an 'anchor' to improve the legislature, or to create lasting cross-party alliances and collaborations.

The rate at which political alliances splinter in the aftermath of elections makes the congress very unpredictable and tricky to manage. In 2006, seven alliances were elected to congress. Ollanta Humala's electoral vehicle, Unión por el Perú, won the most seats but was unable to hold together once in congress. By 2010, the shape of congress had altered dramatically. Of eight political groupings with a presence in the legislature, five were brand new alliances, leaving four independent seats. The only party that had kept all of its seats was the PAP (with 36 seats).  

The incoming congress, which will sit in late July, will also likely be fragmented, mirroring the results of the October regional polls. This is largely because the various alliances are made up of one or more national parties, but also carry independent regional candidates on their lists; and lastly also have a lot of new faces on their lists.

While a divisive congress without a stable majority is a challenge for any incoming government, in the case of Peru the executive currently drives the legislative agenda and, for the most part, congress has ceased to originate much new legislation. Neither does it act as a check on the executive (see sidebar).

• Why be a congressional candidate?
  Javier Diez Canseco, in recent conversation with LatinNews, said, “Congress suffers from weak representation and thus weak legitimacy, high inefficiency, serious levels of corruption, low parliamentary accountability, limited room for policy discussion and limited legislative power; resulting in a decaying and rotting political system. Congress is an open market, where everything is for sale and everything can be brought. Election to congress promises political influence and a significant income, but most importantly, for many, the benefits that one can accrue from being part of a lobby group. The function of the congress is no longer to legislate - this function has been taken over by central government."  

- Diez Canseco is a former congressman and co-founder of Partido Socialista, part of Ollanta Humala's leftist electoral alliance, Alianza Gana Perú. Humala is polling in fifth place with 14% of voting intentions.