Weekly Report - 22 July 2003

RULING PRD RISKS SPLIT OVER MEJIA'S REELECTION BID 

The ruling Partido Revolucionario Democrático (PRD) is navigating very close to breaking-point over President Hipólito Mejí­a's wish to stand for reelection. Ironically, it looks very much like taking this risk for nothing, as the frontrunner in the opinion polls, former President Leonel Fernández of the Partido de la Liberación Dominicana (PLD), has gained a lead which will be hard to overtake. 

A survey conducted by Gallup-Omnimedia and published in the newspaper Diario Libre on 18 July shows Fernández attracting 51% of voter preferences -enough to get himself elected outright in the first round. 

Eduardo Estrella, candidate of the Partido Reformista Social Cristiano (PRSC, for many years the 'party of government'), comes next with a mere 12.7%. His position as secondrunner largely reflects the fact that the PRD has not yet nominated its candidate, so the survey shows the preferences attracted by each and every one of the aspirants: 

* Hipólito Mejí­a: 8.7% 
* Milagros Ortiz Bosch: 7.7% 
* Rafael Suberví­ Bonilla: 5.7% 
* Hatuey Decamps: 2.7%