Weekly Report - 5 August 2003

The Guatemalan opposition has come together to block the former dictator's return to power, but circumstances are not the same as when they halted Jorge Serrano a decade ago.

Faced with the failure of the attempt to block the registration of retired General Efrain Rios Montt as the presidential candidate of the ruling FRG, all opposition parties have coalesced in congress in the Instancia Parlamentaria de Oposición, and have joined with unions, business associations, NGOs and an array of social organisations in a broad Frente Frente Cívico por la Democracia. On the surface, this is reminiscent of the manner in which an ad-hoc civic coalition came together in May 1993 to reverse President Jorge Serrano's attempt to stage a Fujimori-style autogolpe, dissolving congress and dismissing the supreme court.

On that occasion, in an episode that caught the attention of the entire region, Serrano was halted and ousted. This time, though, the differences loom larger than the similarities. Serrano had no majority in congress, but ruled in uneasy coalition; Rios Montt is the president of a congress in which his party, the FRG, outvotes the combined strength of all opposition parties. Then, the constitutional court ruled Serrano's actions unconstitutional, and the army submitted to this ruling; now the constitutional court backs Rios Montt and the army, headed by his son, was party to an exercise in mass intimidation of the judiciary. Then, congress voted to declare the presidency vacant, now it would be unable to do so.

There may even be more dissimilarities. Opinion surveys put opposition candidate Oscar Berger well in the lead, Ri­os Montt a poor third. This, however, is basically a count of urban voting intentions - and about 40% of them are as yet unclear. In the interior the situation is not the same, particularly among the poorer Guatemalans. 
Many of the rioters ferried from the interior to the capital just over a week ago were Indians; some paid, some reportedly coerced, others persuaded with promises of redress for longstanding grievances. 

This pattern could well repeat itself when voting day arrives. The opposition is well aware of it, as witness its repeated warnings against the possibility of electoral fraud and demands of strong international oversight. Even this could be in doubt: when the recent FRG-led riots hit Guatemala city, international observers were on the point of being pulled out.

Less noted is the fact that the FRG's electioneering emphasis on law and order (ironically, given its past record and present involvement in the actions of 'clandestine security groups') sounds appealing among vulnerable groups. 

Report on latest developments in Guatemala, below.