Weekly Report - 5 August 2003

Leadership candidates are surfacing in both the ruling PNP and the opposition JLP, though neither PJ Patterson nor Edward Seaga are yet putting a date on their departure. 

The poor performance of the ruling People's National Party (PNP) in last month's local elections has brought to the fore, earlier than expected, the question of who will replace prime minister PJ Patterson. Three prominent party figures are seen to be already in the running: former cabinet minister Karl Blythe (the only one who has publicly acknowledged that he is a contender), national security minister Peter Phillips and local government minister Portia Simpson Miller. All three are vice-presidents of the PNP. 

The Sunday Gleaner claims that there is a move afoot to enhance Phillips' chances and reduce those of Blythe. It involves securing the election, at the PNP conference in September, of development minister Paul Robertson, an ally of Phillips, as one of the party's four vice-presidents. Of the current four, only one, agriculture minister Roger Clarke, is deemed not to aspire to the top post. 

Prime minister Patterson said last weekend, 'It would be unrealistic to expect that potential candidates will not begin to position themselves for the starting gate. But until that time when a vacancy is imminent, any campaigning or positioning that could prove to divide the party or distract from our current mission of continuing the social and economic transformation of Jamaica, must and will be discouraged.' It is widely believed that Patterson will step down sometime next year. 

Two declared contenders in JLP 

In the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) it has been assumed for some time that former deputy leader Pearnel Charles would be a leading contender to replace Edward Seaga when he steps down. Now an unexpected rival has appeared in the form of current deputy leader Derrick Smith, hitherto not considered to harbour leadership aspirations. 

These two have openly declared that they are in the running. Political commentators also cite two other deputy leaders, Audley Shaw and Ed Bartlett, as well as former party chairman Bruce Golding, as possible contenders. Both Charles and Golding - who are brothers-in-law - are rumoured to be seeking election as deputy leaders at the JLP's conference in November (though Golding has denied this outright and Charles says he hasn't yet made up his mind). 

Some analysts suggest that deputy leader Audley Shaw, who as spokesman on financial affairs has earned a reputation as the scourge of the ruling PNP, might also emerge as a leadership contender. 

Apart from Seaga's position as leader, another one is expected to become vacant soon: that of party chairman, currently held by Ryan Peralto, who has been suffering from ill health. Golding has dismissed suggestions that he might seek to get his old job back, which leaves the acting deputy chairman, Percy Broderick, as the favourite to succeed Peralto. 

It is expected that Seaga will step down before the next general election, due in 2007: Patterson has stated that he will not be in the running, and few think Seaga, now 73, would chance contending against a younger PNP leader.