Weekly Report - 19 August 2003

COLOMBIA | Warning of runaway deficit. Despite recent adjustments Colombia is facing an even larger budget deficit than the anticipated 2.5% of GDP - which was already 0.4 points above the level agreed with the IMF. 

A strong warning to this effect came from central bank manager Miguel Urrutia and, most dramatically, the bicameral congressional budget committee, which returned the draft budget to the executive for clarification of some suspect revenue items equivalent to US$1.4bn (just over 5% of budgeted outlays). 

The legislators queried just over US$1bn described as coming from capital resources over and above those already envisaged, and US$383m assumed to come from tax receipts arising from an anti-evasion law which has not even been submitted yet to congress. They also said they would like to see more funds allocated to investment. 

BOLIVIA | Growth in question. Government predictions of 3% growth for this year have been called into question by the president of the Cámara Nacional de Comercio, Guillermo Morales. He says the figures the authorities have been providing are not trustworthy. The official prediction is based on a 14% annual increase in export earning in the first half of the year (the biggest such upturn in four years) and the expectation that oilseed exports this year will bring in US$350m, the highest earnings ever. 

Morales points to a 10.4% increase in the external debt and an 8.5% rise in banks' debt arrears, to claim that this year will be worse than 2002, with growth at best reaching 2%. 

VENEZUELA | More debt buyback. The government will attempt to buy back more of its outstanding bonds, after the US$1.5bn operation three weeks ago. The national assembly has authorised it to issue up to US$3bn in bonds (in dollars or euros) for that purpose. The central bank has warned it to keep in mind the volatility of the euro vis-í -vis the US dollar, and to seek terms of more than 10 years.