Economy & Business - January 2006

Although there are some long-term economic problems looming (notably in the oil industry, see Commodities Report) the immediate outlook for the economy in this election year looks decent. This means that an economic crisis, similar to the one caused by the delayed devaluation in 1994, is unlikely to cripple the final few months of the Fox administration or the first year of the new administration. Few economists can quibble with the finance ministry's forecast that the economy will grow by between 3.6% and 3.7% in 2006. The central bank governor, Guillermo Ortiz, is a shade more cautious, forecasting growth of between 3% and 3.5%.