Economy & Business - September 2007 (ISSN 1741-4431)

This is our fifth effort at forecasting what will happen in the region in 2007 and our first stab at forecasting what will happen in 2008. We are making these forecasts in late-September, just after the US Federal Reserve Board cut US interest rates by half a percentage point. Our view of the global economy is bearish. We think that world growth will slow, despite the Fed's action, and the effect of higher commodity prices (oil, metals and grains) will push up inflation.