Five-year Forecast - June 2004

Latin America has been a major beneficiary from the boom in commodity prices. In this section we will look at the prospects for three key commodities: oil, copper and soya. We take each of them to represent their particular sector: energy, base metals and agricultural commodities. Oil prices hit their highest level since 1990 on 3 May 2004. Ogres from past, such as the Oil Producing and Exporting Countries (Opec) are now jerking the strings of the world economy. Although the general view is that Saudi Arabia remains the driving (and not always pro-US) force in Opec, it is clear that Saudi Arabia and Opec's influence depends on its links to other important oil producers.