Special Insight Papers

Expect 2005 to be a difficult year for the country. It is a pre-election year, so the electoral jockeying and elbowing will be particularly vicious: what happened to the mayor of Mexico City, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, in 2004 is probably only a dry run of the dirty tricks in store for other candidates in 2005. This electoral jockeying will probably take place against the backdrop of a spluttering economy: oil prices may well weaken. The effect of this will be compounded by a slowdown in the US and a weak US dollar.