Brazil & Southern Cone - July 2011 (ISSN 1741-4431)

As we go to press Paraguay’s expectations are set on its possible entry into the Copa América’s football final; the government of President Fernando Lugo is possibly more excited than anyone else: as people and the local media concentrate on the team’s historic performance, his political advisors have time and space to manoeuvre in an attempt to resolve what appears to be the imminent rupture of the ruling coalition. With the so-called ‘Plan A’, an attempt to reform the constitution to allow for Lugo’s re-election, having failed, the local press has revealed the details of an alleged ‘Plan B’ that would both sideline Lugo’s main opponent within the coalition, his vice-president Federico Franco, and secure Lugo’s continuation in politics after 2013.

The manoeuvring apparently includes a deal whereby a segment of the Partido Liberal Radical Auténtico (PLRA), the coalition’s main partner, would back the controversial swearing-in to the senate of the former president Nicanor Duarte Frutos (2003-2008) in exchange for the ruling Alianza Patriótica para el Cambio (APC)’s backing of the presidential candidacy of the PLRA’s president, Blas Llano. Furthermore, the deal would also stipulate Lugo’s inclusion as the top senatorial candidate for his left-wing outfit, Frente Guasú.

The problem is that Lugo’s swearing in to congress could face some of the same constitutional hurdles blocking Duarte Frutos’s instatement – former Paraguayan presidents enjoy the benefit of becoming lifetime senators in congress, which is generally a symbolic position. Duarte Frutos, however, was also elected senator by popular vote, giving him a voice and vote in the upper chamber; he wants to keep both posts but legal experts consider this to be unconstitutional, even though the supreme court has authorised it. In order to secure ‘Plan B’ works out, Duarte Frutos would have to be sworn in for Lugo to use his case as an established precedent.

It is possible that Lugo’s new plan is intended to save his relationship with at least part of the PLRA. During the president’s 1 July state of the nation address, there were not enough congressmen present to make quorum and Llano was one of those conspicuous for his absence, especially since he had been a steadfast Lugo ally until that very moment. Even though the general elections are still a long way away, it seems frictions and fractures within the ruling coalition will continue to deepen until the chess pieces of the new political game have fallen into place.

• Brasiguayos ask for Brazilian mediation
  On 15 July, a group of so-called ‘Brasiguayos’ (Brazilians settled in Paraguay) met Alvaro Dias, a Brazilian senator from the opposition Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB) to request official Brazilian mediation in the escalating land conflict in Paraguay. Dias has previously raised the issue in the Brazilian senate and pledged to do so again. Meanwhile, the local council of the border city of Foz do Iguazú has sent letters to the Brazilian foreign ministry, the congress and the minister of the presidency, Gleisi Hoffmann, requesting measures in favour of the ‘Brasiguayos’. The council has also authorised the ‘Brasiguayos’ to hold a summit with Brazilian authorities in the border town, which is expected to take place in late August or early September. Brazilian involvement could exacerbate a situation that is largely seen as a domestic affair.