Caribbean & Central America - June 2011 (ISSN 1741-4458)

It was arguably only a matter of time. The alliance between President Ricardo Martinelli’s Cambio Democrático (CD) party and its main coalition partner, the Partido Panameñista (PP), is now in tatters. This month, CD members confirmed that a process was underway to pick a candidate ahead of the 2014 presidential vote. This reneges on the deal struck ahead of the 2009 May election whereby Vice-President Juan Carlos Varela, the PP party president, ditched his bid to join Martinelli on the understanding that the PP would head up the coalition ticket in 2014. It suggests that just as Martinelli now effectively controls the judiciary, he is no longer dependent on PP support to push through his legislative agenda.

CD has nearly doubled its presence in the 71-member unicameral congress since the last election, from 15 seats to 29. The PP has 20, down from 21 in 2009. A handful of seats from the minor members of the ruling Alianza por el Cambio, leaves Martinelli now within easy reach of a majority. As the CD has gradually picked up opportunistic defectors from other parties and increased its strength, tensions with the PP have become more apparent, most notably over Martinelli’s now-abandoned proposal to change the constitution to allow for consecutive presidential re-election [RC-11-01]. The final nail in the coffin of the CD-PP alliance was another proposed change to the electoral rules vehemently opposed by the PP – this time a legislative proposal by the CD to change the presidential voting method to a two-round election if one of the candidates fails to secure a majority (50%+) in the first round. Martinelli’s convincing 60% victory in 2009 was just one of three presidential races to have been won by an absolute majority (along with Arnulfo Arias [1969] and Guillermo Endara [1989]).

Aside from signalling an end to the alliance with the PP, the second-round proposal, which comes as other constitutional changes are being discussed by a newly established government committee (see sidebar), has attracted controversy. The head of the electoral tribunal, Gerardo Solís, and other legal experts argue that the change is a constitutional matter rather than a legislative one given that article 177 of the constitution states that a President is elected with an absolute majority. Congress president and CD member José Muñoz Molina told reporters that those who oppose the motion could always challenge it in the supreme court once it has been approved, although this failed to provide much reassurance given Martinelli’s control over the judiciary [RC-10-01].

• Constitutional reform

At the end of April, Martinelli established a nine-member special committee of legal experts tasked with drafting proposals for reforming the 1972 constitution, a process expected to take several months which will, according to the government, involve “citizen consultation”. Martinelli has failed to specify which articles are up for revision. However, many speculate that the proposals, which will be presented to the president and his cabinet for approval before going to congress, will include his previously floated suggestion of reducing the length of time a former president must wait before becoming eligible for re-election from ten to five years. Changes to the constitution must be approved in three congressional debates by an absolute majority.